咖啡市场大逆转：皮爷一天关一店，瑞幸日销2000万杯 The first major reversal in the coffee market: Piye closes one store a day, Luckin Coffee sells 20 million cups per day
来源：食代侧写
被誉为“星巴克祖师爷”的皮爷咖啡（Peet‘s Coffee）近期陷入关店潮。据了解，这个源自美国的精品咖啡品牌今年以来已关闭多家核心门店，包括深圳万象天地华南首店、广州首店及杭州西湖旗舰店等标志性门店。
与此形成强烈反差的是，本土品牌瑞幸咖啡8月7日立秋当天宣布创下2000万杯的单日销售纪录。根据官方披露数据，上海地区单日销量突破百万杯，其中陆家嘴正大广场店单日销量达2691杯。
公开数据显示，皮爷咖啡的扩张速度明显放缓。2023年新开门店98家，2024年降至51家，2025年上半年仅新开16家。
皮爷的困境只是精品咖啡市场的一个缩影。同样定位高端的Seesaw咖啡近期被曝拖欠员工工资，关闭了至少一半门店，全国门店数量已不足50家。M Stand也在去年陷入“开三家关两家”的怪圈，2024年新开87家店却关闭了64家。
根据欧睿国际数据，中国精品咖啡市场增速已从2023年的25%降至2025年的12%。
与精品咖啡的困境相反，平价咖啡品牌正在高速扩张。瑞幸、库迪等品牌凭借9.9元的常态化促销策略，迅速占领市场。
瑞幸咖啡最新财报显示，2025年第二季度实现总净收入123.59亿元，同比增长47.1%，营业利润同比增长61.8%至17亿元。
数字化运营和本土化创新是这些本土品牌成功的关键。瑞幸不仅依赖App作为核心触点，还能基于地理位置进行精准推送。通过抖音、淘宝等电商平台，用直播带货、短视频种草等方式，将咖啡从线下饮品转化为线上快消品。
市场巨变的背后，是消费者咖啡消费行为的根本性变革。《2024中国城市咖啡发展报告》数据显示，2024年我国咖啡产业规模达3133亿元，较上年增长18.1%；人均年饮用数提升至22.24杯。消费者对咖啡的“日常刚需”认知进一步加强。
然而，咖啡消费的平均客单价却在逐年下降。美团数据显示，2023年全国咖啡到店团购消费平均客单价从2021年的34.4元降至13.8元。在大众咖啡消费者调研中，80%的消费者基于性价比做决策，仅有4%的消费者愿意为“买咖啡”支付25元以上。
精品咖啡品牌面临着内部成本结构失衡与外部价格战的双重压力。一直以来，精品咖啡品牌依赖核心商圈选址，租金成本沉重。2024年全球咖啡豆价格飙升30%，阿拉比卡豆突破220美分/磅，进一步加剧了成本压力。
像深圳万象天地等顶级商场年租金涨幅达5%-8%，同时人力成本占比超25%，远高于平价咖啡品牌的15%。
在外部，行业内的“9.9元咖啡价格战”重塑了大众咖啡消费认知。“都是咖啡，别人9块9，它卖40块”这样的质疑声不断出现，使得定位高端的精品咖啡品牌客流大幅流失。
面对市场压力，精品咖啡品牌开始寻求转型。皮爷咖啡在2024年12月推出了平价子品牌Ora Coffee，价格在15-25元区间，部分产品优惠可低至9.9元，采用“小而精”的门店模式。
今年7月，皮爷咖啡在湖北、浙江、广州等地的部分门店实行消费入座政策，要求顾客需消费后才能入座，以解决长期存在的“占座不消费”问题。
星巴克虽然市场份额从2017年的42%下滑到2024年的14%，但其最近一个季度仍新开了522家门店，实现了8%的营收增长。星巴克中国新进入17个县级市场，新开门店两年内贡献高于均值的同店销售。
中国咖啡市场的分化正在加速。一面是定位高端的精品咖啡品牌节节败退，另一面是本土平价品牌的狂飙突进。这种分化不仅仅体现在销售数据上，更反映了中国消费者咖啡消费观念的根本性转变。
JDE Peet's 2024年报显示，尽管皮爷中国有机销售额保持增长，调整后的息税前利润（EBIT）有机增长23.8%，但这份财报难以掩盖其在中国市场扩张乏力的困境。
业内人士指出：“中国咖啡市场已经进入深度调整期。过去依靠品牌光环和高端定位就能取胜的时代已经结束，现在需要的是对本地消费文化的深度理解和快速响应能力。”
未来属于那些能够真正理解中国消费者、快速迭代产品、并精准控制成本的品牌。瑞幸的单日2000万杯和皮爷的关店潮，揭示了一个残酷的现实：在中国市场，规模效应和运营效率会更重要。
就目前来看，咖啡市场已经从“第三空间”的体验消费，转变为日常功能性消费，这也意味着品牌必须重新构建自己的价值主张，找到在新消费环境下的定位。”
值得注意的是，虽然平价咖啡目前占据上风，但消费升级的需求仍然存在。未来的赢家可能是那些能够在性价比和品质之间找到最佳平衡点的品牌。
Source: Foodie's Side Notes: Peet's Coffee, known as the "ancestor of Starbucks," has recently experienced a wave of closures. It is reported that this boutique coffee brand originating from the United States has closed several core stores since the beginning of this year, including iconic stores such as the first store in Shenzhen Wanxiang Tiandi South China, the first store in Guangzhou, and the flagship store in West Lake, Hangzhou.
In stark contrast, local brand Luckin Coffee announced on the first day of autumn on August 7th that it had set a daily sales record of 20 million cups. According to official disclosure data, the daily sales volume in Shanghai exceeded one million cups, with the Lujiazui Zhengda Plaza store selling 2691 cups in a single day.
Public data shows that the expansion speed of Piye Coffee has significantly slowed down. 98 new stores will be opened in 2023, decreasing to 51 in 2024, and only 16 new stores will be opened in the first half of 2025.
Piye's predicament is just a microcosm of the boutique coffee market. Seesaw Coffee, which is also positioned as a high-end brand, has recently been exposed for owing employee salaries and closing at least half of its stores, with less than 50 stores nationwide. M Stand also fell into a vicious cycle of "opening three stores and closing two" last year, opening 87 new stores but closing 64 in 2024.
According to Euromonitor International data, the growth rate of China's premium coffee market has decreased from 25% in 2023 to 12% in 2025.
Contrary to the dilemma of specialty coffee, affordable coffee brands are rapidly expanding. Brands such as Luckin Coffee and Kudi quickly captured the market with their regular promotion strategy of 9.9 yuan.
Luckin Coffee's latest financial report shows that in the second quarter of 2025, it achieved a total net revenue of 12.359 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.1%, and operating profit increased by 61.8% year-on-year to 1.7 billion yuan.
Digital operations and localized innovation are the key to the success of these local brands. Luckin not only relies on apps as core touchpoints, but also provides precise push notifications based on geographic location. Through e-commerce platforms such as Tiktok and Taobao, coffee has been transformed from offline drinks to online FMCG products by means of live broadcast with goods and short video planting grass.
Behind the market upheaval is a fundamental change in consumer coffee consumption behavior. According to the "2024 China Urban Coffee Development Report," the scale of China's coffee industry reached 313.3 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 18.1% compared to the previous year; The per capita annual consumption has increased to 22.24 cups. Consumers' awareness of coffee as a 'daily necessity' has further strengthened.
However, the average unit price of coffee consumption has been decreasing year by year. According to Meituan data, the average unit price of coffee in store group purchases nationwide in 2023 decreased from 34.4 yuan in 2021 to 13.8 yuan. In a survey of coffee consumers, 80% of consumers make decisions based on cost-effectiveness, and only 4% of consumers are willing to pay more than 25 yuan for "buying coffee".
Fine coffee brands are facing dual pressures of internal cost structure imbalance and external price wars. Throughout history, boutique coffee brands have relied on core business district locations, resulting in heavy rental costs. In 2024, global coffee bean prices soared by 30%, with Arabica beans breaking through 220 cents per pound, further exacerbating cost pressures.
Top tier shopping malls such as Shenzhen Wanda Plaza have seen an annual rent increase of 5% -8%, while labor costs account for over 25%, far higher than the 15% increase for affordable coffee brands.
Externally, the "9.9 yuan coffee price war" within the industry has reshaped the public's perception of coffee consumption. The continuous questioning of "it's all coffee, others charge 9.9 yuan, it sells for 40 yuan" has caused a significant loss of customer flow for high-end boutique coffee brands.
Faced with market pressure, boutique coffee brands are seeking transformation. Piye Coffee launched its affordable sub brand Ora Coffee in December 2024, with prices ranging from 15-25 yuan. Some products can be discounted as low as 9.9 yuan, adopting a "small but refined" store model.
In July of this year, Piye Coffee implemented a consumption seating policy in some stores in Hubei, Zhejiang, Guangzhou and other places, requiring customers to consume before being seated, in order to solve the long-standing problem of "occupying seats but not consuming".
Although Starbucks' market share has declined from 42% in 2017 to 14% in 2024, it still opened 522 new stores and achieved 8% revenue growth in its most recent quarter. Starbucks China has entered 17 new county-level markets, with new stores contributing above average same store sales within two years of opening.
The differentiation of the Chinese coffee market is accelerating. On one hand, high-end boutique coffee brands are losing ground, while on the other hand, local affordable brands are making rapid progress. This differentiation is not only reflected in sales data, but also reflects a fundamental shift in Chinese consumers' coffee consumption concepts.
JDE Peet's 2024 annual report shows that although organic sales in China have continued to grow, with adjusted EBIT organic growth of 23.8%, this report cannot conceal its weak expansion in the Chinese market.
Industry insiders point out that "the Chinese coffee market has entered a period of deep adjustment. The era of relying on brand halo and high-end positioning to win in the past is over. What is needed now is a deep understanding of local consumer culture and the ability to respond quickly
The future belongs to brands that truly understand Chinese consumers, iterate products quickly, and precisely control costs. Luckin Coffee's daily 20 million cups and Piye's store closure trend reveal a cruel reality: in the Chinese market, economies of scale and operational efficiency will be more important.
At present, the coffee market has shifted from experiential consumption in the "third space" to daily functional consumption, which also means that brands must rebuild their value proposition and find their positioning in the new consumption environment. ”
It is worth noting that although affordable coffee currently dominates, there is still a demand for consumer upgrades. The future winners may be brands that can find the best balance between cost-effectiveness and quality.