“价格战”冲击下咖啡行业如何洗牌？How to reshuffle the coffee industry under the impact of the "price war"?

曾经被誉为“精品咖啡黄埔军校”、巅峰估值一度突破10亿元的Seesaw，如今走到了破产清算的边缘。近日，上海西舍咖啡有限公司（Seesaw运营主体）接连新增多条破产审查案件。这家诞生于上海的初代精品咖啡连锁遇困，也像一面镜子，照见了国内咖啡赛道在惨烈价格战、赛道内卷之下的生存百态。当低价厮杀逐渐触碰成本红线，国内咖啡市场正告别单纯拼价格的野蛮阶段，一场全方位的行业大洗牌已然开启。

从估值10亿到被申请破产

天眼查最新信息显示，目前西舍咖啡名下已有3起破产审查案件。上海琉璃工房玻璃艺术品有限公司、上海玛露实业有限公司两家供应商，均以企业无法清偿到期债务、明显丧失偿债能力为由，向法院递交申请，要求对西舍咖啡进行破产清算。

消息一出，在咖啡行业与新消费圈引发关注。回溯十余年前，Seesaw是国内本土精品咖啡赛道不折不扣的拓荒者。2012年，当国内高端咖啡市场几乎被星巴克垄断时，Seesaw首家门店落地上海愚园路，率先填补了本土连锁精品咖啡的市场空白。依托“一店一色”的差异化设计、主打手冲精品咖啡的产品路线，它把专业精品咖啡文化带入大众视野，也因此收获了“精品咖啡黄埔军校”的美誉。

亮眼的品牌调性很快吸引资本蜂拥而至。2017年，Seesaw拿下4500万元融资，成为国内首个拿到资本加持的精品咖啡品牌。此后资本一路加码，2021年、2022年接连完成过亿元A+轮、数亿元A++轮融资，百福控股、黑蚁资本等知名机构悉数入局，就连新茶饮头部品牌喜茶也参与投资，品牌估值一路冲高至10亿元。

手握巨额资金，Seesaw开启激进扩张。2022年其门店总数突破160家，创始人也曾公开立下目标，计划五年内冲刺千店规模。然而，短短数年光景，品牌便急转直下。

危机其实早有迹可循。早在2024年11月，就有员工爆料Seesaw出现工资延迟、分期发放，社保公积金断缴等问题；2025年起，多家供应商集中追讨货款。经营压力之下，门店大幅收缩成为必然。从2023年下半年开始，Seesaw陆续闭店调整，截至2024年底，近半数门店悄然关停。截至今年5月13日，其全国现存门店仅剩34家。一位常年在上海消费咖啡的市民感慨：以前家附近、商圈里随处可见Seesaw，这两年门店一下子少了很多。

三大本土精品咖啡，在价格战中走向分化

Seesaw的困境，并非个例。2015年诞生的Manner Coffee、2017年成立的M Stand，与Seesaw同为上海走出的本土精品咖啡品牌，早年同样凭借鲜明特色走红，在新消费风口下斩获海量融资、快速跑马圈地。

定位“小而美”平价精品路线的Manner，2018年起陆续获得今日资本、淡马锡、美团龙珠、字节跳动等巨头投资；主打网红空间设计的M Stand，2021年十余间门店就拿下超亿元A轮融资，估值达7亿元，后续多轮融资落地后，整体估值更是突破40亿元。巅峰时期，三家品牌并肩领跑本土精品咖啡赛道，成为一级市场追捧的香饽饽。

但行业风向在2023年彻底转变。瑞幸、库迪掀起的9.9元全民咖啡价格战，直接将国内现磨咖啡主流价位压至10—20元区间，2025年外卖平台补贴，则再次拉低行业售价。低价浪潮席卷之下，主打中高端的精品咖啡集体承压，三家头部品牌也走出截然不同的发展曲线。

相较于同行，Seesaw的短板被无限放大。品牌长期维持32.48元的高客单价，不仅远高于Manner 21.12元的水平，更是和9.9元档位的快咖啡形成巨大鸿沟。与此同时，“一店一色”的重资产门店模式拉高运营成本，后期推出的茶咖、果咖等创意产品也未能持续打动消费者，高定价逐渐失去支撑。

主打颜值与场景体验的M Stand同样放慢脚步。数据显示，该品牌2023年新开门店251家，扩张势头迅猛；到了2024年，全年新店数量骤降至90家，泉州、厦门、武汉等多个城市的门店陆续关停。

唯独走“平价精品”路线的Manner逆势突围。凭借亲民定价、轻量化门店模式，品牌依旧保持稳定拓店节奏，2023年新开512家门店，2024年新增门店655家，目前全国门店总量已突破2500家，市场传出其计划明年赴港IPO，估值最高有望达到30亿美元。

告别低价内卷，咖啡行业迎深度分化

一边是头部品牌收缩战线，一边是整个咖啡市场仍在持续扩容。《2026中国城市咖啡发展报告》显示，2025年国内咖啡产业规模达到3549亿元，同比增长13.3%，国人人均年咖啡饮用量升至28.57杯。咖啡消费不断向下沉市场、多元场景渗透，赛道玩家也愈发多元。

如今的咖啡市场，早已不是精品咖啡与传统连锁的二元对立。瑞幸、库迪持续深耕下沉市场；星巴克加速渠道下沉，2025财年一口气进驻166个县级市场；茶百道、古茗、奈雪的茶等新茶饮巨头，依托成熟供应链跨界卖咖啡；李宁、美宜佳、中石化易捷等跨界玩家也纷纷入局，争抢咖啡消费流量。

不过从渠道布局来看，传统精品咖啡品牌依旧高度依赖一线、新一线城市。窄门餐眼数据显示，Manner仅有3%的门店布局在三线及以下城市，M Stand这一占比更是低至2.44%，下沉市场拓展能力不足，成为精品咖啡共同的短板。

持续数年的价格战，也渐渐走到了尽头。面对不断走高的原材料、人力、租金成本，头部品牌率先按下“降温键”：瑞幸逐步缩减9.9元特价产品覆盖范围，库迪也在2026年初叫停“全场9.9元不限量”活动，烧钱补贴的野蛮时代逐渐走向落幕。

世界中餐业联合会会长邢颖表示，国内咖啡市场已经进入高速扩容与深度分化并行的新阶段。随着资本并购、产业整合加剧，行业格局正在加速重塑。近期行业资本动作频频：2025年11月，博裕资本斥资约40亿美元拿下星巴克中国零售业务60%控股权；2026年3月，瑞幸大股东大钲资本与雀巢达成协议，收购蓝瓶咖啡全球线下门店业务，被视作品牌向上布局高端市场的重要一步。

业内分析认为，当下咖啡行业的竞争逻辑已经改写。过去比拼价格、门店数量、网红噱头的玩法不再奏效，未来品牌想要站稳脚跟，必须在供应链自主把控、全域数字化运营、品牌矩阵搭建、产品创新等综合能力上发力。对于曾经风光的精品咖啡赛道而言，盲目扩张、脱离消费需求的品牌将加速出清，而找准定位、深耕价值的玩家，才能在这场行业大洗牌中站稳脚跟。

Seesaw, once known as the "Huangpu Military Academy of Fine Coffee" and with a peak valuation exceeding 1 billion yuan, is now on the brink of bankruptcy liquidation. Recently, Shanghai Xishe Coffee Co., Ltd. (Seesaw operator) has added multiple bankruptcy review cases in succession. This first generation boutique coffee chain, born in Shanghai, encountered difficulties and was like a mirror, reflecting the survival of the domestic coffee industry under fierce price wars and competition. As the low price competition gradually crosses the cost red line, the domestic coffee market is bidding farewell to the barbaric stage of simply competing on prices, and a comprehensive industry reshuffle has begun.

From valuation of 1 billion to bankruptcy filing

According to the latest information from Tianyancha, there are currently three bankruptcy review cases under the name of Xishe Coffee. Shanghai Liuli Workshop Glass Art Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Malu Industrial Co., Ltd., two suppliers, have both submitted applications to the court requesting bankruptcy liquidation of Xishe Coffee, citing their inability to repay due debts and obvious loss of debt repayment ability.

As soon as the news came out, it attracted attention in the coffee industry and new consumer circles. Looking back over a decade, Seesaw was a true pioneer in the domestic specialty coffee market. In 2012, when the domestic high-end coffee market was almost monopolized by Starbucks, Seesaw's first store landed on Yuyuan Road in Shanghai, filling the market gap for local chain specialty coffee. Relying on the differentiated design of "one shop, one color" and the product route of hand brewed specialty coffee, it has brought professional specialty coffee culture into the public eye and thus gained the reputation of "Huangpu Military Academy of Specialty Coffee".

The eye-catching brand tone quickly attracted capital to flock to it. In 2017, Seesaw secured a financing of 45 million yuan, becoming the first boutique coffee brand in China to receive capital support. Since then, capital has continued to increase, completing over 100 million yuan in A+rounds and hundreds of millions of yuan in A++rounds of financing in 2021 and 2022. Famous institutions such as Baifu Holdings and Black Ant Capital have all entered the market, and even the leading brand of New Tea Beverage, Heytea, has participated in investment, with its brand valuation soaring to 1 billion yuan.

Holding a huge amount of funds, Seesaw embarked on aggressive expansion. In 2022, the total number of its stores exceeded 160, and the founder also publicly set a goal to reach a scale of 1000 stores within five years. However, in just a few years, the brand took a sharp downturn.

The crisis has long been traceable. As early as November 2024, employees reported that Seesaw had issues such as delayed salary payments, installment payments, and interrupted social security and housing fund contributions; Starting from 2025, multiple suppliers will concentrate on pursuing payment for goods. Under business pressure, a significant contraction of stores has become inevitable. Starting from the second half of 2023, Seesaw will gradually close and adjust its stores. By the end of 2024, nearly half of its stores will quietly shut down. As of May 13th this year, there are only 34 existing stores nationwide. A resident who consumes coffee in Shanghai all year round sighed: Seesaw used to be everywhere near their home and in the commercial district, but in recent years, there have been many fewer stores.

The three major local specialty coffees are diverging in the price war

Seesaw's predicament is not an isolated case. Manner Coffee, born in 2015, and M Stand, founded in 2017, are both local boutique coffee brands that have emerged from Shanghai, along with Seesaw. In their early years, they also rose to fame with their distinctive features and gained massive financing and quickly gained market share in the new consumer trend.

Manner, which is positioned as a "small and beautiful" affordable boutique route, has successively received investment from today's capital, Temasek, Meituan Dragon Ball, ByteDance and other giants since 2018; M Stand, which focuses on the design of internet celebrity spaces, secured over 100 million yuan in Series A financing for more than ten stores in 2021, with a valuation of 700 million yuan. After multiple rounds of financing, the overall valuation exceeded 4 billion yuan. At its peak, the three brands led the local specialty coffee market side by side, becoming a sought after commodity in the primary market.

But the industry trend will completely change in 2023. The 9.9 yuan nationwide coffee price war initiated by Luckin Coffee and Kudi has directly pushed the mainstream price range of freshly ground coffee in China to 10-20 yuan. In 2025, subsidies from food delivery platforms will once again lower the industry's selling price. Under the wave of low prices sweeping through, high-end specialty coffee brands are collectively under pressure, and the three leading brands have also embarked on completely different development curves.

Compared to its peers, Seesaw's shortcomings are infinitely magnified. The brand has maintained a high unit price of 32.48 yuan for a long time, which is not only much higher than Manner's 21.12 yuan level, but also forms a huge gap with fast coffee in the 9.9 yuan range. At the same time, the heavy asset store model of "one store, one color" has raised operating costs, and creative products such as tea and fruit snacks launched later have not been able to continue to impress consumers, resulting in high pricing gradually losing support.

The M Stand, which focuses on appearance and scene experience, also slows down its pace. Data shows that the brand will open 251 new stores in 2023, with a rapid expansion momentum; By 2024, the number of new stores will sharply drop to 90 throughout the year, and stores in cities such as Quanzhou, Xiamen, and Wuhan will gradually shut down.

Only Manner, who took the route of "affordable and high-quality products", broke through against the trend. With its affordable pricing and lightweight store model, the brand still maintains a stable pace of expanding stores. It will open 512 new stores in 2023 and 655 new stores in 2024. Currently, the total number of stores in China has exceeded 2500. There are rumors in the market that it plans to go public in Hong Kong next year, with a potential valuation of up to 3 billion US dollars.

Farewell to low price competition, coffee industry welcomes deep differentiation

On one hand, top brands are shrinking their front lines, while on the other hand, the entire coffee market is still expanding. The 2026 China Urban Coffee Development Report shows that by 2025, the scale of the domestic coffee industry will reach 354.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, and the average annual coffee consumption per capita in China will rise to 28.57 cups. Coffee consumption continues to penetrate into lower tier markets and diverse scenarios, with increasingly diverse players on the track.

The coffee market today is no longer a binary opposition between boutique coffee and traditional chain coffee. Luckin Coffee and Kudi continue to deeply cultivate the sinking market; Starbucks accelerates channel expansion, entering 166 county-level markets in one go in fiscal year 2025; New tea beverage giants such as Tea Baidao, Guming, and Nayuki's Tea are leveraging mature supply chains to cross over and sell coffee; Cross border players such as Li Ning, Meiyijia, and Sinopec Yijie have also entered the market, competing for coffee consumption traffic.

However, from the perspective of channel layout, traditional boutique coffee brands still heavily rely on first tier and new first tier cities. According to data from Narrow Gate Restaurant, only 3% of Manner's stores are located in third tier and lower tier cities, and M Stand's share is as low as 2.44%, indicating a lack of ability to expand into lower tier markets and becoming a common weakness for specialty coffee.

The price war that lasted for several years has gradually come to an end. Faced with continuously rising costs of raw materials, labor, and rent, top brands have taken the lead in pressing the "cooling button": Luckin Coffee gradually reduces the coverage of its 9.9 yuan special offer products, and Kudi also stops the "9.9 yuan unlimited" promotion in early 2026, gradually ending the barbaric era of burning money subsidies.

Xing Ying, President of the World Federation of Chinese Catering Industry, stated that the domestic coffee market has entered a new stage of rapid expansion and deep differentiation. With the intensification of capital mergers and acquisitions and industrial integration, the industry landscape is accelerating its reshaping. Recently, there have been frequent capital movements in the industry: in November 2025, Boyu Capital invested approximately $4 billion to acquire a 60% controlling stake in Starbucks' retail business in China; In March 2026, Luckin Coffee's major shareholder, Dazheng Capital, reached an agreement with Nestle to acquire the global offline store business of Blue Bottle Coffee, which is seen as an important step for the brand to expand into the high-end market.

Industry analysis suggests that the current competitive logic in the coffee industry has been rewritten. The gameplay of competing for prices, store numbers, and internet celebrity gimmicks in the past is no longer effective. In order for brands to establish a foothold in the future, they must focus on comprehensive capabilities such as independent control of the supply chain, global digital operations, brand matrix building, and product innovation. For the once glorious boutique coffee track, brands that blindly expand and deviate from consumer demand will accelerate their clearance, while players who find the right positioning and deeply cultivate value will be able to stand firm in this industry reshuffle.