咖啡：从热带乔木到世界饮品的植物传奇Coffee: A Plant Legend from Tropical Trees to World Beverages
高温天数猛增、巴西放量、价格下探、消费换挡，这几件事拉扯着同一根线，咖啡产业的未来正在被重写。
先看热。2021到2025年，主要产区一年里多出平均47天超过30度的高温。
五个头部产国一年多出57天。
这不是天气噪音，这是生长条件被改写。
阿拉比卡最舒服的温度在18到22度，超过30度，叶片气孔会收紧，蒸腾受限，光合作用下降，树体难以把足够的糖分送进果实。
开花期遇热，花容易掉，授粉不稳，坐果率下去。
豆子灌浆时间被压缩，颗粒变小，密度降低，后期烘焙时香气物质也少。
罗布斯塔能扛更高温，但连续热天配合干旱，枝条更新慢，虫害压力上来，锈病和介壳虫更容易爆发。
原文里写到了咖啡喜半阴，实际生产中常用的遮阴树，正是为这类热天准备的。
遮阴能把叶面温度拉低几度，哪怕2到4度，对花和幼果就是生死线。
再加上地面铺草，能把土壤蒸发降下来，土温更稳，根系不至于停摆。
还有海拔，往上升100米，平均气温能降零点六度，很多产区在往坡上挪，这背后是对热的应对。
再看供给。
巴西国家供应公司给出2026到2027年度的产量预测，6620万袋，阿拉比卡4410万袋，罗布斯塔2210万袋。
同比增长一成七。
个别贸易商估得更高，七千多万袋。
为什么高？
前几年经历干旱和冻害，树体修复后进入上行周期，这个周期叠加了更好的田间管理，补苗、修剪、施肥都在跟进。
巴西南米纳斯去年花期雨水分布更均衡，花开更齐，后期结果更整齐。
罗布斯塔在圣埃斯皮里图和朗多尼亚扩种多年，灌溉覆盖更广，开花受热冲击小，产量也在爬坡。
市场听到这个消息，期货价格回落，阿拉比卡和罗布斯塔都打到去年八月以来低点。
期货反应的是预期，供应上升，空头力量增强，持仓也做了调整。
这里要提醒一点，预测是基于当前气象和树体状态，若开花后热浪叠加干风，或者采摘季碰上强降雨，实产会打折扣，所以价格的低位不等于风险消失。
把镜头拉宽。
USDA最新给出2025到2026年度全球产量约一亿七千五百万袋，折合一千零七十多万吨。
消费在一千零一十多万吨。
供需还是紧，库存没有大幅累积。
品种结构在变，罗布斯塔占比升到约四六，阿拉比卡降到五四。
这说明烘焙端在调整配方，用更高比例的罗布斯塔压成本，同时借助水洗或后发酵把风味拉上去。
冷萃和即饮增长，罗布斯塔更适配萃取强度和风味稳定。
越南的产量预计增长六个点，二千九百多万袋，为近四年新高。
原因是高地雨水回归正常，农户加大施肥，灌溉点扩容，老园更新后进入盛果期。
中央高原水资源压力不小，但滴灌和水肥一体的覆盖率在升，能把单耗降下来。
哥伦比亚这边出现回落，年度前四个月累计减产二十六点四个点。
海拔高，云雾多，去年拉尼娜尾声带来过多的雨，花期日照偏少，花开分散，后期采摘分批，效率下降。
加上叶锈病的周期性波动，老树占比高，推行更新要时间，这一段的低迷很难立刻扭转。
把这些放进植物学的框架里，逻辑是统一的。
咖啡树是常绿，生殖生长和营养生长要平衡。
温度靠近上限，树体会优先保命，牺牲花和果。
雨水多但日照弱，花诱导不充分，花芽质量差，后续果实变异更大。
土壤如果不够疏松和微酸，根系吸收效率下去，营养不到位，抗逆就差。
阿拉比卡本来更讲究环境细节，所以高温年亏损更明显。
罗布斯塔耐性强一些，但把温度、干旱、虫害放在一起，压力也在叠加。
这就解释了为什么遮阴、修剪和改良品种是主线。
价格与结构的联动也清楚。
巴西的丰产预期，拉低了盘面。
但消费端的变动，没有给出全面转弱的信号。
功能性咖啡的市场到2030年预估七十八亿美元，年增长在两位数。
驱动力来自睡眠管理、健身人群、对糖分和脂肪的更细分需求。
低因咖啡的年复合增长约四个点半，夜间饮用场景增加，办公室和家庭的囤货增加。
这些把消费从单一的提神，拉向更细的场景。
烘焙和门店在做配方升级，添加蛋白、胶原、维生素的搭配，能抓住新客群。
再加上植物奶的普及，燕麦、豌豆做底，能稳住风味并提高可选择度。
门店也在强调体验，烘焙可视化、手冲操作台、咖啡豆产地的故事，都在拉时长和转化率。
供应端如果能给出清晰的溯源和产区信息，门店端就能拿到溢价。
中国市场的变化很关键。
库迪从二月一日停止全场九块九，说明低价期告一段落。
低于成本的推广只能带来短期客流，但无法覆盖房租、人工、奶和豆的成本。
瑞幸推进二次上市，资本希望看到稳定的利润模型。
挪瓦完成大额融资，表明市场认可差异化策略。
接下来靠什么跑？
靠门店网络的密度与质量平衡，靠产品结构中中高价位的占比提升，靠会员体系和私域的复购管理，靠供应端的稳定和议价能力。
单杯成本里，奶和豆占了大头，低价很难持续。
把注意力拉回咖啡本身的风味和新鲜，才是更牢的抓手。
中国的现磨市场还在上升期，价格战降温不会杀掉需求，反而有利于把注意力放到口感、产地、工艺这些能打动人的点上。
回到田间。
应对热和不稳，要三条腿走路。
第一，品种。
用更抗热、抗病的阿拉比卡系、罗布斯塔改良系和杂交一代。
像耐锈的系谱，或者阿拉比卡与卡内弗拉的杂交，能在不牺牲太多风味的前提下提升稳产。
种苗质量要过关，砧木和接穗要匹配，苗期管理要跟上。
第二，管理。
遮阴树不是摆设，要选树种、定密度、管高度。
滴灌能把水用在刀口上，土壤铺草能保墒，减少20到30的蒸发损失。
施肥要看叶片营养诊断，不是凭感觉。
修剪要定期，把营养集中到有效结果枝。
第三，交易与价格。
长期合同、溢价和最低保护价，能给农户投入的信心。
烘焙端多产地分散采购，把气候风险摊开。
期货套保，该买保险就买。
不要把一年的生死押在一个区的晴雨里。
关于巴西的高产预测，还要补几句。
Conab的统计基于田间抽样和历史模型。
贸易商的更高估算加入了主观判断，比如预计采收效率更好、颗粒分级更高、缺陷率更低。
两者的差值，反映的是市场对“好年景”的不同理解。
要警惕的是，这个好年景背后的气象窗口有多长。
若高温日继续增加，花期错位，明后年的产量会在波动中回到均值。
价格下探后，如果出现减产信号，反弹会更急。
产业要做的是把波动换成确定性的积累，而不是跟着盘面起落摇摆。
把咖啡放到别的农品对比，教训就在眼前。
可可因为西非的病害和热胁迫，过去两年产量下行，价格飙升，消费者和产业都在被动应对。
茶在一些高海拔区也在往上爬，找更凉的带。
咖啡还有时间窗口，阿拉比卡的高海拔地带还可扩，罗布斯塔的管理还有提升空间。
要趁这几年把种植和市场两头的基础打牢。
不然，下一个被热浪推着走的，就是咖啡。
我支持一个直白的判断：不把抗热和稳产当头等事的企业，会在下一轮热浪里丢掉主动权。
要等到像可可那样被动涨价后再补课吗？
First, let's take a look at the heat. From 2021 to 2025, major production areas will experience an average of 47 days of high temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius per year.
Five top producing countries have an additional 57 days per year.
This is not weather noise, this is the rewriting of growth conditions.
The most comfortable temperature for Arabica is between 18 and 22 degrees Celsius. Beyond 30 degrees Celsius, the stomata of the leaves will tighten, transpiration will be limited, photosynthesis will decrease, and the tree will have difficulty delivering enough sugar into the fruit.
During the flowering period, if exposed to heat, the flowers are prone to fall off, pollination is unstable, and the fruit setting rate decreases.
The filling time of beans is compressed, the particles become smaller, the density decreases, and there are fewer aromatic substances during later baking.
Robusta can withstand higher temperatures, but continuous hot weather combined with drought results in slower branch regeneration and increased pest pressure, making rust and scale insects more prone to outbreaks.
The original text mentioned that coffee prefers semi shade, and the shade trees commonly used in actual production are precisely prepared for such hot weather.
Shade can lower the leaf temperature by a few degrees, even if it is 2 to 4 degrees, which is the lifeline for flowers and young fruits.
In addition, planting grass on the ground can reduce soil evaporation, stabilize soil temperature, and prevent root systems from stopping.
There is also an altitude increase of 100 meters, and the average temperature can drop by 0.6 degrees. Many production areas are moving up the slope, which is a response to heat.
Looking at the supply again.
The Brazilian National Supply Company has provided a production forecast for 2026-2027, with 66.2 million bags, 44.1 million bags for Arabica, and 22.1 million bags for Robusta.
Year on year growth of 17%.
Some traders estimated it higher, over 70 million bags.
Why high?
In the past few years, after experiencing drought and freezing damage, the tree has entered an upward cycle after restoration, which is combined with better field management, including seedling supplementation, pruning, and fertilization.
Last year in Minas do Sul, Brazil, the distribution of rainfall during the flowering period was more balanced, the flowers bloomed more evenly, and the later results were more uniform.
Robusta has been growing in Espiritu Santo and Rondonia for many years, with wider irrigation coverage, less thermal impact on flowering, and increasing yields.
When the market heard this news, futures prices fell, and both Arabica and Robusta hit their lowest points since August last year.
Futures reflect expectations, supply increases, bearish forces strengthen, and positions are adjusted.
It should be noted that the prediction is based on the current weather and tree state. If there is a combination of heat waves and dry winds after flowering, or heavy rainfall during the picking season, the actual production will be discounted. Therefore, a low price does not mean that the risk disappears.
Expand the lens.
The latest estimate from the USDA is that the global production from 2025 to 2026 will be approximately 175 million bags, equivalent to over 10.7 million tons.
Consumption is over 10.1 million tons.
Supply and demand are still tight, and inventory has not accumulated significantly.
The variety structure is changing, with Robusta accounting for about 46% and Arabica decreasing to 54%.
This indicates that the baking side is adjusting the recipe, using a higher proportion of Robusta to reduce costs, while using water washing or post fermentation to enhance flavor.
Cold extraction and ready to drink growth make Robusta more suitable for extraction intensity and flavor stability.
Vietnam's production is expected to increase by six points, reaching over 29 million bags, a new high in nearly four years.
The reason is that the highland rainfall has returned to normal, and farmers have increased fertilization, expanded irrigation points, and entered the peak fruiting period after the old garden was updated.
The pressure on water resources in the central plateau is not small, but the coverage of drip irrigation and water fertilizer integration is increasing, which can reduce unit consumption.
Colombia has experienced a decline, with a cumulative production reduction of 26.4 points in the first four months of the year.
High altitude, abundant clouds and mist. Last year, the end of La Ni ñ a brought too much rain, resulting in less sunshine during the flowering period and scattered flowers. Later on, picking was done in batches, leading to a decrease in efficiency.
Combined with the periodic fluctuations of leaf rust, the proportion of old trees is high, and it takes time to implement updates. This period of decline is difficult to reverse immediately.
Putting these into the framework of botany, the logic is unified.
Coffee trees are evergreen and require a balance between reproductive and nutritional growth.
When the temperature approaches the upper limit, the tree will prioritize survival and sacrifice flowers and fruits.
There is abundant rainfall but weak sunlight, insufficient flower induction, poor flower bud quality, and greater fruit variation in the future.
If the soil is not loose and slightly acidic, the absorption efficiency of the roots will decrease, and the nutrients will not be in place, resulting in poor stress resistance.
Arabica originally paid more attention to environmental details, so the losses in high-temperature years are more obvious.
Robusta is more tolerant, but when combined with temperature, drought, and pest infestations, the pressure also accumulates.
This explains why shading, pruning, and improving varieties are the main focus.
The linkage between price and structure is also clear.
Brazil's high yield expectations have dragged down the market.
But the changes on the consumer side have not given a comprehensive signal of weakening.
The market for functional coffee is estimated to reach 7.8 billion US dollars by 2030, with annual growth in the double digits.
The driving force comes from sleep management, fitness enthusiasts, and a more segmented demand for sugar and fat.
The compound annual growth rate of low calorie coffee is about four and a half points, with an increase in nighttime drinking scenes and stockpiling in offices and homes.
These shift consumption from a singular focus on alertness to more nuanced scenarios.
Baking and store are upgrading their formulas by adding a combination of protein, collagen, and vitamins to capture new customer groups.
In addition, the popularity of plant-based milk, with oats and peas as the base, can stabilize the flavor and increase the selectivity.
The store is also emphasizing the experience, with visual baking, hand washing workstations, and stories of coffee bean production areas all being focused on time and conversion rates.
If the supply side can provide clear traceability and production area information, the store side can receive a premium.
The changes in the Chinese market are crucial.
Kudi stopped selling for 9.9 yuan from February 1st, indicating that the low price period has come to an end.
Promotion below cost can only bring short-term foot traffic, but cannot cover the costs of rent, labor, milk, and beans.
Luckin Coffee is advancing its secondary listing, and the capital hopes to see a stable profit model.
Novartis has completed a large financing, indicating market recognition of differentiation strategies.
What will we run on next?
By balancing the density and quality of the store network, by increasing the proportion of mid to high price points in the product structure, by relying on the membership system and private domain repurchase management, and by relying on the stability and bargaining power of the supply side.
Milk and beans account for the majority of the cost per cup, making it difficult to sustain low prices.
Pulling attention back to the flavor and freshness of coffee itself is a stronger grip.
The current grinding market in China is still on the rise, and the cooling price war will not kill demand. Instead, it is conducive to focusing on the appealing aspects such as taste, origin, and craftsmanship.
Return to the field.
To cope with heat and instability, walk on three legs.
Firstly, the variety.
Use Arabica lines, Robusta improved lines, and hybrid generations that are more resistant to heat and disease.
Genealogy that is resistant to rust, or hybridization between Arabica and Canefra, can improve stability without sacrificing too much flavor.
The quality of seedlings should be up to standard, the rootstock and scion should be matched, and seedling management should keep up.
Secondly, management.
Shade trees are not just decorations, you need to choose tree species, density, and pipe height.
Drip irrigation can use water on the cutting edge, and planting grass on the soil can maintain moisture and reduce evaporation losses by 20 to 30%.
Fertilization should be based on leaf nutrition diagnosis, not on intuition.
Pruning should be done regularly to concentrate nutrients on effective fruiting branches.
Thirdly, transactions and prices.
Long term contracts, premiums, and minimum protection prices can give farmers confidence to invest.
Diversified procurement from multiple production areas on the baking end, spreading out climate risks.
Futures hedging, buy insurance if you should.
Don't bet your life and death on the weather of one district for a year.
I need to add a few words about Brazil's high-yield forecast.
Conab's statistics are based on field sampling and historical models.
Traders' higher estimates incorporate subjective judgments, such as predicting better harvesting efficiency, higher particle grading, and lower defect rates.
The difference between the two reflects the market's different understanding of 'good years'.
Be wary of how long the meteorological window is behind this good year.
If the number of hot days continues to increase and the flowering period is misaligned, the yield of the next year will return to the average in fluctuations.
After the price drops, if there is a signal of production reduction, the rebound will be more rapid.
What the industry needs to do is to replace volatility with the accumulation of certainty, rather than following the ups and downs of the market.
Comparing coffee with other agricultural products, the lesson is right in front of us.
Due to diseases and heat stress in West Africa, cocoa production has declined and prices have skyrocketed in the past two years, causing consumers and industries to passively respond.
Tea is also climbing up in some high-altitude areas, looking for cooler belts.
Coffee still has a time window, the high-altitude areas of Arabica can be expanded, and there is still room for improvement in Robusta's management.
We should take advantage of these years to lay a solid foundation on both the planting and market sides.
Otherwise, the next one pushed away by the heat wave will be coffee.
I support a straightforward judgment: companies that do not prioritize heat resistance and stable production will lose the initiative in the next heat wave.
Do we have to wait until prices passively increase like cocoa before making up for the missed classes?