国信证券：古茗维持“优于大市”评级 咖啡拉新效果显著Guoxin Securities: Guming maintains a "better than the market" rating, with significant effects in attracting new customers to coffee
来源：新浪港股
国信证券发布研报称，古茗（01364）26H1核心利润同比高增53.3%，咖啡拉新效果显著，维持“优于大市”评级。公司26H1实现收入74.70亿元，同比增长31.9%；经调整利润15.68亿元，同比增长44.4%；经调整核心利润17.30亿元，同比增长53.3%，核心利润率23.2%、同比提升3.3个百分点；IFRS净利润15.7亿元，同比下降3.4%，主要受25H1优先股公允价值变动高基数扰动。该行预计2026-2028年营业收入162/195/232亿元，经调整利润32/40/46亿元，最新收盘价对应市盈率约17/14/12倍。
国信证券主要观点如下：
上半年店效保持韧性，咖啡与早餐形成正向贡献
26H1 GMV 197.47亿元，同比增长40.1%；售出11.10亿杯，同比增长35.9%；单店GMV 141.75万元，同比增长3.4%；单店日均杯量440杯，同比基本持平。店效保持稳健系咖啡饮品及早餐场景拓展和外卖平台补贴退坡的综合作用。按GMV/杯数测算单价约17.8元，同比增长3.1%，该行认为主要系外卖补贴退坡门店实收率回归常态、早餐等新品类拓展等因素带动。
毛利率提升叠加费用摊薄，经营性利润弹性突出
26H1毛利率33.4%，同比提升1.9个百分点；销售及分销、行政、研发费用率分别为5.1%/2.8%/1.7%，同比分别下降0.5/0.5/0.3个百分点。销售费用增速低于收入与营销节奏差异有关，行政及研发费用率下降主要来自经营杠杆。
上半年净开店797家，渠道持续下沉，管理层对长期门店规模保持乐观
26H1新开1，318家、关闭521家、净增797家，期末14，351家，同比增长28.4%。根据公司公告，放缓主要因更重视门店质量、优先升级六代店并提高选址标准；二线及以下、乡镇占比分别为82%/45%，同比提升1/2个百分点。根据管理层交流，从更长期来看，公司门店目标至少为3万家，甚至可能达到4万家以上。
咖啡机已覆盖90%以上门店，拉新效果显著
截至6月末约13，500家门店配备咖啡机，26H1共推出51款新品，其中12款为咖啡新品；从客群来看，咖啡业务有50%以上来自新客，随着业务发展，老客复购也在明显提升，消费者已逐渐形成茶饮、咖啡轮换消费的习惯，未来咖啡收入占比有望继续提升。
风险提示
行业竞争与价格促销超预期；单店经营及新店拓展不及预期；咖啡/早餐新品类拓展不及预期；原材料价格、食品安全、税率及汇率波动等。
Source: Sina Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Guoxin Securities released a research report stating that the core profit of Guming (01364) 26H1 increased by 53.3% year-on-year, and the coffee has a significant effect on attracting new customers, maintaining its "better than the market" rating. The company achieved a revenue of 7.47 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 31.9%; Adjusted profit of 1.568 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.4%; After adjustment, the core profit was 1.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.3%, with a core profit margin of 23.2%, a year-on-year increase of 3.3 percentage points; IFRS net profit was 1.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, mainly due to the disturbance of high base changes in the fair value of 25H1 preferred shares. The bank expects a revenue of RMB 162/195/232 billion and an adjusted profit of RMB 32/40/4.6 billion from 2026 to 2028. The latest closing price corresponds to a P/E ratio of approximately 17/14/12 times.
The main viewpoints of Guoxin Securities are as follows:
In the first half of the year, store performance remained resilient, and coffee and breakfast made a positive contribution
26H1 GMV was 19.747 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.1%; Sold 1.11 billion cups, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%; The GMV of a single store was 1.4175 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%; The daily average cup volume of a single store is 440 cups, which is basically the same as the same period last year. The comprehensive effect of maintaining stable store efficiency is the expansion of coffee beverage and breakfast scenes, as well as the reduction of subsidies for food delivery platforms. Based on GMV/cup, the unit price is estimated to be about 17.8 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. The bank believes that this is mainly driven by factors such as the return of takeaway subsidies to normal and the expansion of new categories such as breakfast.
The increase in gross profit margin combined with cost dilution highlights the elasticity of operating profit
The gross profit margin of 26H1 was 33.4%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year; The sales and distribution, administrative, and R&D expense ratios were 5.1%/2.8%/1.7%, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5/0.5/0.3 percentage points. The lower growth rate of sales expenses is related to the difference in revenue and marketing pace, while the decrease in administrative and R&D expense ratios mainly comes from operating leverage.
In the first half of the year, there were 797 net store openings, and the channels continued to sink. The management remains optimistic about the long-term store scale
In the first half of the year, 1318 new businesses were opened, 521 businesses were closed, and a net increase of 797 businesses was recorded. As of the end of the period, there were 14351 businesses, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.4%. According to the company announcement, the slowdown is mainly due to a greater emphasis on store quality, prioritizing the upgrade of sixth generation stores, and raising site selection standards; The proportion of second tier and below, as well as townships, is 82%/45% respectively, an increase of 1/2 percentage point year-on-year. According to management communication, in the longer term, the company's store target is at least 30000, and may even reach over 40000.
Coffee machines have covered over 90% of stores, with significant new customer acquisition effects
As of the end of June, approximately 13500 stores were equipped with coffee machines, and a total of 51 new products were launched in 26H1, including 12 new coffee products; From the perspective of customer base, more than 50% of the coffee business comes from new customers. With the development of the business, repeat purchases by old customers are also significantly increasing. Consumers have gradually formed a habit of rotating consumption of tea and coffee, and the proportion of coffee revenue is expected to continue to increase in the future.
Risk statement
Industry competition and price promotions exceed expectations; Single store operation and new store expansion did not meet expectations; The expansion of new coffee/breakfast categories did not meet expectations; Raw material prices, food safety, tax rates, and exchange rate fluctuations.