全球咖啡市场处于转折点The global coffee market is at a turning point
转自：期货日报
2024年和2025年，咖啡价格走出了两轮显著的上涨行情。2026年以来，受主产国增产预期影响，咖啡价格出现阶段性回落。然而，中东冲突等地缘政治风险依然存在，航运成本上升、燃料和化肥价格上涨等因素持续推高咖啡产业链各环节成本，咖啡价格走势的不确定性并未消除。
全球咖啡期末库存降至多年来最低水平
咖啡作为一种热带经济作物，其商业化种植区域严格限定于北纬25°至南纬30°之间的“咖啡带”。该地带终年无霜冻、降水充沛、日照充足，年均气温维持在大约20℃，从气候与自然禀赋层面决定了全球咖啡产区的空间分布。巴西、越南、哥伦比亚、埃塞俄比亚、印尼、乌干达、印度等七个主要生产国的合计产量通常占全球总产量的八成以上。
根据美国农业部（USDA）对外农业服务局2025年12月发布的报告，2025/2026年度全球咖啡市场呈现产量创新高与库存持续下降并存的罕见格局。该年度全球咖啡产量预计达到创纪录的1.78848亿袋（每袋60千克），较上一年度增加350万袋，增幅约为2%。产量增长的主要驱动因素为越南产量逐步恢复，以及印尼与埃塞俄比亚产量双双创下历史最高纪录。然而，上述增量仅能部分抵消巴西与哥伦比亚因不利生产条件而造成的减产。
从品种结构来看，阿拉比卡咖啡与罗布斯塔咖啡表现分化显著。USDA数据显示，2025/2026年度全球阿拉比卡咖啡产量预计为9551.5万袋，同比下降约4.7%；罗布斯塔咖啡产量预计为8333.3万袋，同比增长10.9%。这一分化格局是主产国天气差异的直接映射——巴西阿拉比卡咖啡主产区干旱导致产量骤降，而越南和印尼的罗布斯塔咖啡在有利天气和高价刺激下迎来增产浪潮。
与此同时，USDA预计2025/2026年度全球咖啡消费量延续增长态势，达到创纪录的1.73852亿袋，同比上升1.3%。全球咖啡豆出口量预计为1.23825亿袋，较上年度增加230万袋，同比增长1.9%。出口增长的主要贡献方为越南、印尼及洪都拉斯，三国增量足以抵消巴西与哥伦比亚出口下滑带来的拖累。
最为关键的是，全球咖啡期末库存预计连续第五年下降，仅剩2014.8万袋，为多年来最低水平。市场核心矛盾已从“产量是否充足”转向“有效供应是否可得”。即使总产量创下新高，但主产国减产导致可出口供应减少，加之低库存提供的缓冲空间极为有限，使得市场对任何潜在的供应风险都变得极其敏感。
价格剧烈波动
咖啡作为全球流通最广的农产品之一，其价格发现与风险管理主要依托国际期货市场。目前国际两大核心咖啡期货品种分别为ICE纽约阿拉比卡咖啡期货和ICE伦敦罗布斯塔咖啡期货。
2024年和2025年，全球咖啡价格剧烈波动。在极端天气、供应中断和低库存格局共同推动下，咖啡价格升至历史高位，走出了两轮显著的冲高行情。
ICE纽约阿拉比卡咖啡期货价格在2025年2月和10月两度冲至4.3美元／磅上方，创下数十年来罕见的高点。2026年以来，价格显著回落。荷兰合作银行预计，ICE纽约阿拉比卡咖啡期货价格在2026年年底将落在2.5~3.0美元／磅区间，但预计要到2026年12月巴西新产季更大体量的咖啡上市后，期货价差结构才会从近月升水转向远月升水。
罗布斯塔咖啡价格同样经历了大幅波动行情。根据国际咖啡组织数据，罗布斯塔咖啡价格在2025年3月达到5.812美元／千克的历史峰值，此后震荡回落。2026年3月，罗布斯塔咖啡价格降至3.897美元／千克，较上年同期下跌31.51%。近期，罗布斯塔咖啡价格进一步承压，ICE伦敦罗布斯塔咖啡期货价格在部分交易日出现3%以上的急跌。
根据世界银行数据，2026年3月阿拉比卡咖啡价格约为7.08美元／千克，同比下跌22%，环比下跌12%；罗布斯塔咖啡价格约为3.96美元／千克，同比下跌32%，环比下跌7%。
两大咖啡品种价格表现有一定分化，背后是供需基本面的深度差异：
阿拉比卡咖啡供应出现结构性收紧。巴西阿拉比卡咖啡主产区遭遇严重干旱是推动此前价格上涨的核心驱动力。荷兰合作银行估算，巴西2025年7月至2026年6月的咖啡总产量约为6280万袋，较2024年7月至2025年6月减少6.8%。多家机构均预测巴西阿拉比卡咖啡减产幅度可能高达16%。阿拉比卡咖啡产量的大幅减少，使得依赖巴西阿拉比卡咖啡的全球精品咖啡市场面临供应缺口。
罗布斯塔咖啡增产预期较强。与阿拉比卡咖啡的供应紧张形成鲜明对比，越南和印尼罗布斯塔咖啡产量恢复。StoneX预计2026年全球咖啡市场将进入供给过剩状态，过剩量约1000万袋，为6年来最大过剩规模。
综合来看，2025/2026年度全球咖啡市场呈现以下几个核心特征：
第一，总供给趋于宽松，但结构性紧张依然存在。全球咖啡总产量创新高，但增长主要由罗布斯塔咖啡推动，阿拉比卡咖啡供应因巴西干旱而持续收紧。这意味着全球精品咖啡市场仍面临供应缺口，而罗布斯塔咖啡价格在中长期增产预期影响下或进入调整周期。
第二，全球库存处于历史低位，缓冲能力极为有限。全球咖啡期末库存消费比仍处于较低水平，低库存本身正在成为价格波动的重要放大器。
第三，气候风险常态化，供应链脆弱性凸显。过去50年，全球主要产区最高气温上升1.3℃～1.6℃，降雨量减少93~211毫米，这使得阿拉比卡咖啡在开花与结果期更容易受到干扰。极端天气频发正从偶发干扰演变为系统性风险，气候因素对产量的冲击弹性正在显著放大。
第四，地缘事件与物流成本持续施加压力。中东冲突等地缘事件导致海运成本上升，叠加港口拥堵、集装箱短缺等物流瓶颈，正在从贸易端推升全球咖啡的实际到岸成本。
第五，可持续发展监管重塑贸易格局。欧盟零毁林法案（EUDR）等绿色贸易规则正在对咖啡出口形成新的合规要求。越南被欧盟列为EUDR“低风险”国家，抽查货量占比仅为1%，这一认定为其提供了显著的竞争优势。然而，维持这一优势需要生产者和出口商持续保持自律并全面遵守国际标准。
展望未来，全球咖啡市场正处于一个历史性的转折点。一方面，巴西2026/2027年度罗布斯塔和阿拉比卡咖啡有望增产，将缓解供应短缺压力。StoneX预测巴西2026/2027年度咖啡产量将创纪录，达到7530万袋。另一方面，全球库存的重建需要时间。低库存格局下，任何天气或物流扰动都可能引发新一轮价格大幅波动。
对咖啡产业链中下游企业而言，在天气波动性加剧、地缘局势复杂化以及可持续发展监管趋严的背景下，积极利用期货市场进行风险管理，有助于提升经营韧性。（作者单位：广州期货）
编辑：吴郑思
Translated from: Futures Daily
In 2024 and 2025, coffee prices experienced two significant upward trends. Since 2026, due to the expected increase in production by major producing countries, coffee prices have experienced a temporary decline. However, geopolitical risks such as the Middle East conflict still exist, and factors such as rising shipping costs and fuel and fertilizer prices continue to push up the costs of various links in the coffee industry chain. The uncertainty of coffee price trends has not been eliminated.
Global coffee ending inventory drops to lowest level in years
As a tropical economic crop, coffee's commercial cultivation is strictly limited to the "coffee belt" between latitude 25 ° N and latitude 30 ° S. This area has no frost all year round, abundant precipitation, and ample sunshine. The average annual temperature is maintained at about 20 ℃, which determines the spatial distribution of global coffee producing areas from the perspectives of climate and natural endowment. The combined production of seven major producing countries, including Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Uganda, and India, typically accounts for over 80% of the global total production.
According to a report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service in December 2025, the global coffee market showed a rare pattern of record high production and continuous inventory decline in 2025/2026. The global coffee production for this year is expected to reach a record high of 178.848 million bags (60 kilograms per bag), an increase of 3.5 million bags or approximately 2% compared to the previous year. The main driving factors for the increase in production are the gradual recovery of production in Vietnam and the record breaking production in Indonesia and Ethiopia. However, the above increase can only partially offset the production cuts caused by unfavorable production conditions in Brazil and Colombia.
From the perspective of variety structure, Arabica coffee and Robusta coffee show significant differentiation. According to USDA data, global Arabica coffee production is expected to reach 95.515 million bags in 2025/26, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 4.7%; Robusta coffee production is expected to reach 83.333 million bags, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%. This differentiation pattern is a direct reflection of weather differences in major producing countries - drought in the Arabica coffee producing region of Brazil has led to a sharp decline in production, while Robusta coffee in Vietnam and Indonesia has experienced a wave of increased production under favorable weather and high price stimulation.
At the same time, the USDA expects global coffee consumption to continue its growth trend in 2025/2026, reaching a record high of 173.852 million bags, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. The global export volume of coffee beans is expected to be 123.825 million bags, an increase of 2.3 million bags from the previous year and a year-on-year growth of 1.9%. The main contributors to export growth are Vietnam, Indonesia, and Honduras, and the increase in these three countries is sufficient to offset the drag caused by the decline in exports from Brazil and Colombia.
The most crucial thing is that global coffee ending inventory is expected to decline for the fifth consecutive year, leaving only 20.148 million bags, the lowest level in many years. The core contradiction in the market has shifted from whether production is sufficient to whether effective supply is available. Even if the total production reaches a new high, the reduction in production by major producing countries leads to a decrease in exportable supply, coupled with the extremely limited buffer space provided by low inventory, making the market extremely sensitive to any potential supply risks.
Severe price fluctuations
As one of the most widely circulated agricultural products in the world, coffee's price discovery and risk management mainly rely on the international futures market. At present, the two core international coffee futures varieties are ICE New York Arabica Coffee Futures and ICE London Robusta Coffee Futures.
In 2024 and 2025, global coffee prices will experience significant fluctuations. Driven by extreme weather, supply disruptions, and low inventory patterns, coffee prices have risen to historic highs, breaking out of two significant upward trends.
ICE New York Arabica coffee futures prices surged above $4.3 per pound twice in February and October 2025, setting a rare high in decades. Since 2026, prices have significantly declined. Rabobank predicts that ICE New York Arabica coffee futures prices will fall within the range of $2.5-3.0 per pound by the end of 2026, but it is expected that the futures spread structure will shift from near month premiums to far month premiums only after a larger volume of coffee is listed in Brazil's new production season in December 2026.
Robusta coffee prices have also experienced significant fluctuations in the market. According to data from the International Coffee Organization, the price of Robusta coffee reached a historical peak of $5.812 per kilogram in March 2025 and has since fluctuated and declined. In March 2026, Robusta coffee prices dropped to $3.897/kg, a decrease of 31.51% compared to the same period last year. Recently, Robusta coffee prices have come under further pressure, with ICE London Robusta coffee futures prices experiencing a sharp drop of over 3% on some trading days.
According to World Bank data, the price of Arabica coffee in March 2026 was approximately $7.08 per kilogram, a year-on-year decrease of 22% and a month on month decrease of 12%; The price of Robusta coffee is about $3.96 per kilogram, a year-on-year decrease of 32% and a month on month decrease of 7%.
There is a certain degree of differentiation in the price performance of the two major coffee varieties, which is due to the deep differences in supply and demand fundamentals:
Arabica coffee supply is experiencing structural tightening. The severe drought in the main production area of Arabica coffee in Brazil was the core driving force behind the previous price increase. Rabobank estimates that Brazil's total coffee production from July 2025 to June 2026 will be approximately 62.8 million bags, a decrease of 6.8% compared to July 2024 to June 2025. Multiple institutions predict that the reduction in Arabica coffee production in Brazil may be as high as 16%. The significant reduction in Arabica coffee production has led to a supply gap in the global specialty coffee market that relies on Brazilian Arabica coffee.
Robusta coffee production is expected to increase significantly. In sharp contrast to the tight supply of Arabica coffee, Robusta coffee production in Vietnam and Indonesia has recovered. StoneX predicts that the global coffee market will enter a state of oversupply by 2026, with an excess of approximately 10 million bags, the largest surplus scale in six years.
Overall, the global coffee market in 2025/2026 exhibits the following core characteristics:
Firstly, the overall supply tends to be loose, but structural tension still exists. The total global coffee production has reached a new high, but the growth is mainly driven by Robusta coffee, while Arabica coffee supply continues to tighten due to drought in Brazil. This means that the global premium coffee market still faces a supply gap, and Robusta coffee prices may enter an adjustment cycle under the influence of medium - to long-term production expectations.
Secondly, global inventory is at a historical low and buffering capacity is extremely limited. The global coffee ending inventory to consumption ratio is still at a low level, and low inventory itself is becoming an important amplifier of price fluctuations.
Thirdly, the normalization of climate risks highlights the vulnerability of the supply chain. In the past 50 years, the highest temperature in major global production areas has risen by 1.3 ℃ to 1.6 ℃, and rainfall has decreased by 93-211 millimeters, making Arabica coffee more susceptible to disturbances during flowering and fruiting periods. The frequent occurrence of extreme weather is evolving from sporadic disturbances to systemic risks, and the impact elasticity of climate factors on production is significantly increasing.
Fourthly, geopolitical events and logistics costs continue to exert pressure. Geopolitical events such as the Middle East conflict have led to an increase in shipping costs, coupled with logistics bottlenecks such as port congestion and container shortages, which are driving up the actual landed costs of global coffee from the trade side.
Fifth, sustainable development regulation reshapes the trade landscape. The EU Zero Deforestation Act (EUDR) and other green trade rules are forming new compliance requirements for coffee exports. Vietnam has been listed as a "low-risk" EUDR country by the European Union, with only 1% of the sampled goods, providing it with a significant competitive advantage. However, maintaining this advantage requires producers and exporters to maintain self-discipline and fully comply with international standards.
Looking ahead, the global coffee market is at a historic turning point. On the one hand, Brazil is expected to increase production of Robusta and Arabica coffee in 2026/2027, which will alleviate the pressure of supply shortages. StoneX predicts that Brazil's coffee production in 2026/2027 will reach a record high of 75.3 million bags. On the other hand, rebuilding global inventory requires time. Under the low inventory pattern, any weather or logistics disturbance may trigger a new round of significant price fluctuations.
For downstream enterprises in the coffee industry chain, actively utilizing the futures market for risk management in the context of increased weather volatility, complex geopolitical situations, and stricter sustainable development regulations can help enhance operational resilience. (Author affiliation: Guangzhou Futures)
Editor: Wu Zhengsi