主要咖啡生产国出口量或创历史纪录 业内警告价格将迎来大幅下调Major coffee producing countries' export volume may set a historical record, industry warns prices will face significant reduction
财联社5月21日讯（编辑 马兰）全球咖啡出货量有望在新的作物年度出现激增，这可能将大幅压低国际咖啡价格。但另一方面，厄尔尼诺天气可能将打乱接下来的种植安排，并引发咖啡价格的波动。 国际贸易商ECOM的巴西分公司EISA负责人Carlos Santana对媒体表示，由于咖啡产量可能创历史新高，巴西在7月开始的新作物年度将出口创纪录数量的咖啡。 他指出，由于目前市场价格倒挂，即现货价格高于期货价格，种植户更有动力尽快出手咖啡，预计巴西生咖啡出口量将达到约5000万袋（每袋60公斤）。 据行业组织CECAFE称，巴西上一次创下出口量纪录是在2024年，当时出口了4630万袋生咖啡。 另据国际咖啡组织发布的4月市场报告，咖啡价格较上月下降了2.7%，当月平均价格跌至每磅266.24美分。3月，美伊冲突爆发曾推高了咖啡价格，运输、化肥和内陆物流成本的上涨是引发咖啡价格波动的关键。 销售前景 除了巴西的产量大增外，洪都拉斯、越南等主要咖啡出口国也报告出口量将飙升。埃塞俄比亚咖啡和茶叶管理局因此敦促贸易商尽快出售咖啡，不要被中东冲突可能引发咖啡价格上涨的揣测所误导，因为主要咖啡生产国将在未来几个月向全球市场投放大量产品。 3月，全球咖啡（包括各种形式）出口总量达到1359万袋，高于2025年3月的1337万袋，其中亚洲和大洋洲的出口量增长了13.1%，达到582万袋。 Santana指出，巴西的咖啡出口将有助于补充消费国的库存，由于前几年一些主要产咖啡国的产量不足，导致咖啡价格飙升，目前消费国的库存处于历史低位。 与此同时，Santana还提醒称厄尔尼诺现象可能会影响巴西明年的作物收成前景。厄尔尼诺气候通常引发温暖天气，可能会阻止霜冻的发生，但高温也可能会损害咖啡在9月或10月左右的开花期。 他认为，厄尔尼诺现象将会对农民的销售策略产生深远的影响，如果厄尔尼诺现象对咖啡树的负面影响大于正面影响，生产者可能会降低销售速度。 （财联社 马兰）
Carlos Santana, the head of EISA, the Brazilian subsidiary of international trader ECOM, told the media that Brazil will export a record amount of coffee in the new crop year starting in July, as coffee production may reach a historic high.
He pointed out that due to the current market price inversion, where spot prices are higher than futures prices, growers are more motivated to sell coffee as soon as possible. It is expected that the export volume of Brazilian raw coffee will reach about 50 million bags (60 kilograms per bag).
According to industry organization CECAFE, Brazil last set a record for export volume in 2024, when 46.3 million bags of raw coffee were exported.
According to the April market report released by the International Coffee Organization, coffee prices have decreased by 2.7% compared to the previous month, with the average price dropping to 266.24 cents per pound for the month. In March, the outbreak of the US Iran conflict had pushed up coffee prices, with rising transportation, fertilizer, and inland logistics costs being the key factors causing fluctuations in coffee prices.
Sales prospects
In addition to the significant increase in production in Brazil, major coffee exporting countries such as Honduras and Vietnam have also reported a surge in export volume. The Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority therefore urges traders to sell coffee as soon as possible and not be misled by speculation that the Middle East conflict may trigger a rise in coffee prices, as major coffee producing countries will release a large amount of products to the global market in the coming months.
In March, the total export volume of coffee (including various forms) worldwide reached 13.59 million bags, higher than the 13.37 million bags in March 2025, with exports from Asia and Oceania increasing by 13.1% to 5.82 million bags.
Santana pointed out that Brazil's coffee exports will help replenish the inventory of consumer countries. Due to insufficient production in some major coffee producing countries in previous years, coffee prices have skyrocketed, and the inventory of consumer countries is currently at a historical low.
Meanwhile, Santana also cautioned that the El Ni ñ o phenomenon may affect Brazil's crop harvest prospects for next year. El Ni ñ o climate usually triggers warm weather, which may prevent frost from occurring, but high temperatures can also damage the flowering period of coffee around September or October.
He believes that the El Ni ñ o phenomenon will have a profound impact on farmers' sales strategies. If the negative impact of El Ni ñ o on coffee trees outweighs the positive impact, producers may slow down their sales speed.
(Caixin News Agency Malan)