咖啡期货两个月大涨4成，9.9元的低价咖啡还能持续吗？Coffee futures surged 40% in two months, can low-priced coffee at 9.9 yuan continue?

在7月触底后，美国C型咖啡期货（KC.NYB）价格再次开始上涨，短短两个月的时间涨幅达到40%。记者了解到，今年以来咖啡期货价格一直高位运行，已经开始传导到现货市场，部分零售咖啡豆价格已经率先上涨。不过在业内看来，考虑到咖啡豆成本在现制咖啡产品的占比有限，加上大型连锁咖啡品牌也有价格锁定机制，短期内9.9元咖啡还能继续。

咖啡期货价格再度上涨

此前，受巴西等主要生产国因天气原因减产和资产炒作等影响，咖啡豆价格一路上涨，美国C型咖啡期货2025年2月11日突破每磅430美分，创下47年来历史新高，随后价格一路下跌，在7月跌回至每磅271.09美分。但近两个月美国C型咖啡期货再次快速上涨，9月15日再次突破至每磅424美分，9月18日收于每磅380.75美分，整体涨幅超过40%。

多位受访者告诉第一财经记者，年初的咖啡上涨是因为主产国减产，但之后下跌却是因为美国关税事件，而近期咖啡期货再次上涨依旧是由于主产区巴西的恶劣天气问题，造成了减产的预期，也推动了期货价格的再次上涨。

根据国际咖啡组织报告，2024年巴西8到9月就曾出现干旱和暴雨天气，导致咖啡豆出现减产，2025年8月巴西又发生霜冻，虽然整体影响有限，但依然可能造成减产。此外，受欧盟“零毁林法案”等因素影响，部分欧美贸易商加速囤货，也让市场需求更紧俏。

上海啡越投资管理有限公司董事长王振东告诉第一财经记者，咖啡期货高位运行，影响已经传导至现货市场，涨幅与期货水平相当，市场已经在适应新价格。

有国内食品企业负责人告诉第一财经记者，美国C型咖啡期货是阿拉比卡咖啡豆，食品行业用的罗布斯塔咖啡豆价格期货累计也有6成左右的上涨，公司长期合约锁定了一部分原料的价格，目前影响相对有限，但长期情况还有待观望。

而在零售咖啡豆方面，市场已经感受到价格变化。多位网友在社交平台晒出对比照，称其年内购买的Manner、啡舍咖啡豆有3成左右的涨幅。记者从第三方数据平台看到，Manner部分咖啡豆售价180天内有2到3成的涨幅，但也有部分咖啡品牌的咖啡豆价格还在下降。在近期举行的巴克莱银行全球消费品大会上，雀巢首席财务官Anna Manz也提及，已经对咖啡品类进行了约5%的提价。

9.9元咖啡还能照喝

值得注意的是，随着咖啡期货的持续高位运行，也让国内消费者开始关注9.9元低价咖啡的命运。

记者今日在多个外卖平台和部分品牌app看到，相比于外卖大战初期的售价，各外卖平台咖啡折扣的力度明显减弱，但依然还有2.6元的幸运咖、以及6.9元和9.9元的瑞幸、库迪等连锁咖啡产品可以购买。

王振东认为，虽然现货咖啡豆价格在上涨，但对现制咖啡产品总成本影响还没有到肉疼的地步，而且目前咖啡市场竞争越发激烈，价格也是竞争的关键因素之一。

此前招商证券研报显示，一杯拿铁中，咖啡豆成本仅占单杯成本的3.6%，远不及奶类的21.6%。

不过对于熬过了外卖咖啡价格大战的中小咖啡馆来说，咖啡豆价格上涨并不是好消息。在王振东看来，虽然期货主要影响商业豆价格，对精品咖啡馆的冲击会相对小一些，但成本压力依然存在。(本文来自第一财经)

After hitting bottom in July, the price of US C-type coffee futures (KC. NYB) began to rise again, with a 40% increase in just two months. The reporter learned that coffee futures prices have been running at a high level since the beginning of this year, and have begun to transmit to the spot market. Some retail coffee bean prices have already risen first. However, in the industry's view, considering the limited proportion of coffee bean costs in freshly brewed coffee products and the price locking mechanism of large chain coffee brands, 9.9 yuan coffee can continue in the short term.

Coffee futures prices rise again

Previously, due to weather related production cuts and asset speculation in major producing countries such as Brazil, coffee bean prices continued to rise. US C-type coffee futures broke through 430 cents per pound on February 11, 2025, setting a new record high in 47 years. Subsequently, prices continued to decline and fell back to 271.09 cents per pound in July. But in the past two months, US C-type coffee futures have risen rapidly again, breaking through to 424 cents per pound on September 15th and closing at 380.75 cents per pound on September 18th, with an overall increase of over 40%.

Multiple interviewees told First Financial reporters that the increase in coffee prices at the beginning of the year was due to production cuts in major producing countries, but the subsequent decline was due to the US tariff incident. The recent rise in coffee futures is still due to the adverse weather conditions in Brazil, the main producing region, which led to expectations of production cuts and further boosted futures prices.

According to the report of the International Coffee Organization, there will be drought and rainstorm in Brazil from August to September 2024, which will lead to a reduction in the production of coffee beans. In August 2025, there will be frost in Brazil. Although the overall impact is limited, it may still cause a reduction in the production. In addition, due to factors such as the EU's "Zero Deforestation Act", some European and American traders have accelerated stockpiling, which has also made market demand more tight.

Wang Zhendong, Chairman of Shanghai Feiyue Investment Management Co., Ltd., told First Financial reporters that the high-level operation of coffee futures has had an impact on the spot market, with the increase comparable to the futures level, and the market is already adapting to the new prices.

A person in charge of a domestic food company told First Financial reporters that the US C-type coffee futures are Arabica coffee beans, and the price futures of Robusta coffee beans used in the food industry have also risen by about 60%. The company's long-term contracts have locked in the prices of some raw materials, and the impact is relatively limited at present, but the long-term situation remains to be seen.

In terms of retail coffee beans, the market has already felt the price changes. Several netizens posted a comparison on social media, claiming that their purchases of Manner and Caf é coffee beans during the year had increased by about 30%. The reporter saw from a third-party data platform that the price of some Manner coffee beans has increased by 20-30% within 180 days, but there are also some coffee brands whose coffee bean prices are still declining. At the recent Barclays Bank Global Consumer Products Conference, Nestle CFO Anna Manz also mentioned that the coffee category has been raised by about 5%.

9.9 yuan coffee can still be enjoyed

It is worth noting that with the sustained high operation of coffee futures, domestic consumers have also begun to pay attention to the fate of 9.9 yuan low-priced coffee.

Today, reporters saw on multiple food delivery platforms and some brand apps that compared to the initial price of the food delivery war, the discount on coffee on various food delivery platforms has significantly weakened. However, there are still 2.6 yuan lucky coffee, as well as 6.9 yuan and 9.9 yuan chain coffee products such as Luckin Coffee and Kudi available for purchase.

Wang Zhendong believes that although spot coffee bean prices are rising, the impact on the total cost of freshly made coffee products has not yet reached a painful level, and the competition in the coffee market is becoming increasingly fierce, with price being one of the key factors in competition.

According to a research report by China Merchants Securities, the cost of coffee beans in a latte only accounts for 3.6% of the cost per cup, far less than the 21.6% cost of dairy products.

However, for small and medium-sized coffee shops that have survived the price war of takeaway coffee, the rise in coffee bean prices is not good news. In Wang Zhendong's view, although futures mainly affect commercial bean prices and have a relatively smaller impact on boutique coffee shops, cost pressure still exists. (This article is from First Financial)