精品咖啡 难服大众Fine coffee is difficult to win over the public
精品咖啡市场关注已久的一场交易，终于尘埃落定。近期，瑞幸咖啡控股股东大钲资本已与雀巢达成协议，收购蓝瓶咖啡Blue Bottle Coffee全球门店，价格低于4亿美元。
这是去年皮爷咖啡母公司卖身重组后，精品咖啡市场的又一“决定性交易”。这意味着，精品咖啡市场，正在进入退潮之后的“整理期”。接下来，摆上货架的项目会越来越多。
为什么前几年如火如荼的精品咖啡浪潮，最终跑不出头部品牌？难道资本在此付出了巨大的代价后，真的就只能偃旗息鼓吗？
精品咖啡，是指那些用精品咖啡豆制作的咖啡，往往特别强调产地、工艺和风味，突出门店装修的格调和艺术性，走高质高价路线。
这种定位决定了，精品咖啡只能获得少数深度咖啡用户的偏爱，其产品、门店和品牌运作模式，不符合市场逻辑和行业趋势。
说到底，近些年的精品咖啡扩张，只是中国咖啡市场全面发展的副产品。当市场开启咖啡“向下”趋势，还在强调“向上”的精品咖啡，难以走出小众逻辑，最终只会被挤到市场的角落里。
何为精品咖啡？
到底是英雄造时势，还是时势成功了英雄？在咖啡市场，有着不一样的解读。
2017年之前，对于大多数中国人而言，咖啡是纯粹的小众饮品，只有小部分人偶尔尝试。
尽管雀巢早在上世纪80年代就将速溶咖啡引入中国市场，星巴克1999年就将中国首店开到了北京国贸，但彼时咖啡受众相当有限，市场规模较小且增长缓慢。
2017年，瑞幸横空出世，以互联网思维及产业运作模式，拉低现磨咖啡的价格，并通过咖啡的茶饮化创新，培育了更多咖啡用户；2022年，库迪创立，进一步将现磨咖啡价格锁定在9块9。
在星巴克、瑞幸、库迪等品牌的长期耕耘下，中国咖啡市场快速增长，26万家咖啡店撑起了千亿级现磨咖啡市场。
当咖啡从小众变为大众饮品，部分深度用户需求升级，开始关注咖啡豆的产地、处理方式和风味特征，并追求更高层次的咖啡、空间和文化享受，于是，精品咖啡应运而生。
精品咖啡更强调品质，阿拉比卡咖啡豆只是基础；它们也更突出个性，单一原产地是常见标签；其门店选址和装修标准更高，部分品牌甚至会强调一店一设计。
在精品咖啡品牌和拥趸们的描述中，这是一个相对概念：星巴克、瑞幸、库迪等都是“商业咖啡”，而自己是“精品咖啡”。
2015年10月，韩玉龙和陆剑霞夫妇在上海静安南阳路开了一家仅有2平米大小的咖啡店。这个微弱的亮光，在2018年资本介入，2021年淡马锡、美团龙珠、字节跳动先后加注之后，点燃了精品咖啡的星星之火。
那一时期，M Stand、代数学家、Grid咖啡、Seesaw等品牌，先后创立或得到市场和资本的重新关注，精品咖啡赛道逐渐热闹起来。
其实，这样的故事，在咖啡文化和产业更加成熟的欧美市场，早已发生过一遍。欧美咖啡市场升级，先后诞生了Peet’s Coffee、Lavazza、Blue Bottle Coffee等精品咖啡品牌。
中国咖啡市场壮大、本土精品咖啡露头后，这些外资精品咖啡品牌，先后通过直营、特许经营、合资等形式进入中国市场，化身为皮爷咖啡、拉瓦萨、蓝瓶咖啡等。
于是，中国咖啡行业进入新的代际，从最早的台式（上岛咖啡）、美式（星巴克），过渡期的韩式（漫咖啡），目前门店数量占主流的中式（瑞幸、库迪），逐步迭代至第五代——精品咖啡。
这些精品咖啡品牌，受到重度咖啡爱好者们的追捧。如果咖啡消费有层级，那么，他们一定觉得自己站在了行业顶端。
难逃小众命运
然而，精品咖啡热潮背后，市场动力并未能持续。
经过最近几年咖啡市场的大爆发，星巴克强化其第三空间理念，门店数量稳步提升至8000家；快咖啡瑞幸和库迪，门店数量分别达到30000家和18000家。其中，2022年成立的库迪，成长速度更是令全球咖啡界为之侧目。
另外，借助原有门店的优势，肯德基旗下的K Coffee、麦当劳旗下的McCafe，蜜雪冰城旗下幸运咖，沪上阿姨旗下沪咖，均进入行业头部阵营。
2024年中国十大咖啡品牌中，精品咖啡仅有Manner这1家。10年2000家门店，足以笑傲精品咖啡市场，放在整个咖啡行业中，却已经是严重掉队了。
Manner身后，尽管M Stand、代数学家、%Arabica、蓝瓶等品牌的知名度和互联网热度居高不下，但门店数量并没有多少，仍然是小众品牌。
而且，从最近的市场动向看，资本对于精品咖啡的热情，正在逐步退潮。
早在2021年，Manner项目处于声望顶峰之时，早期投资人今日资本就套现离场；2025年初，小红书退出M Stand项目；2025年8月份，美国饮料巨头KDP，以1300亿元现金的代价，收购Peet’s Coffee皮爷咖啡的母公司JDE Peet’s，进行饮料与咖啡业务重组。
雀巢将收购而来的Blue Bottle Coffee蓝瓶咖啡摆上货架的同时，市场传言，一家中国精品咖啡头部品牌即将卖身。
为什么，前几年如火如荼的精品咖啡热，就这样悄然进入尾声？
讨论这个话题之前，首先要回答一个基本问题：对于中国消费者来说，一杯咖啡，到底什么最重要？咖啡本身、门店空间、方便程度，还是背后的文化？
咖啡市场中，追求顶级咖啡口感的人，永远是少数。如果你做一场各种层次、各大咖啡品牌的美式、拿铁盲测，精品咖啡可能才会知道自己的群众基础有多弱。将大部分消费者引入咖啡市场的生椰拿铁、橙C拿铁等，恰恰不是它们的强项。
况且，在所谓的高品质咖啡市场，星巴克、瑞幸、库迪都有各自的解决方案。精品咖啡品牌们，不再是唯一的选项。
对于绝大部分中国咖啡用户来说，他们要的或许不是绝对的好咖啡，或者绝对的便宜，而是质价平衡，以及优质的服务。
星巴克、瑞幸、库迪遍布大街小巷的门店和招牌，就是一种品牌统治力的体现。而精品咖啡们小众、高成本的运作模式，制约了门店扩张速度，难以触达广大消费者，最终被困在了市场的角落里。
所以，当市场对精品咖啡祛魅，当它们依靠定位获得的流量和光环不再，精品咖啡品牌们靠什么持续赢得消费者？
因精品定位和缺乏规模效应，精品咖啡的单店成本、单杯成本都更高。近年咖啡豆价格大涨，或许正在成为压倒它们的最后一根稻草。
最近几年，咖啡期货价格暴涨，屡次突破历史极值，并维持高位运行。咖啡豆价格动辄几十元一斤，精品咖啡豆涨价更甚，单价千元已不足为奇。
星巴克、瑞幸、库迪等头部品牌通过供应链布局和产能建设，强化了市场话语权。而规模更小的精品咖啡们，往往缺乏这样的实力，面对市场波动，几乎毫无办法。
一边是赖以生存的精品定位，一边是原材料、门店等成本的不断高涨，精品咖啡们看不到短期的盈利可能，长期扩张空间也被锁死，终于让市场渐渐冷静下来。
咖啡市场向下
意识到危机的精品咖啡们，早已在调整策略，让自己更适应现实的市场。
面对咖啡市场的激烈竞争，原本略带高傲的精品咖啡们，不得不加入到行业内卷中。有的直接降价；有的推平价副品牌，例如Peet’s Coffee旗下的Ora Coffee，美式也只要9块9；而比星咖啡和Seesaw Coffee等，则用小店模式追赶商业咖啡的扩张路径。
对于近年流行的“咖啡+”策略，无论是餐点、零售业务还是体验活动，精品咖啡们也都纷纷投身其中。
最“大胆”的当属皮爷咖啡。面对门店经营效率问题，推出了消费入座的措施。这几乎是中国市场唯一一家要求消费后才能入座的咖啡馆了。去咖啡馆仅当氛围组的永远只是少数，皮爷咖啡的这种策略，可能会让相当一部分中立的消费者望而却步。
不过，从目前的市场状况来看，这些经营策略的微调，取得的效果非常有限，解决不了精品咖啡的根本问题。
根本原因在于，经过几年时间的全面发展，中国咖啡行业的方向逐步“向下”。
产品“向下”。最近几年，咖啡市场的产品创新，以咖啡的饮料化为主要方向，面对的是大众消费者。精品咖啡倡导的极致好咖啡，仍属小众。
市场“向下”。在瑞幸、库迪以及星巴克的主导下，中心城市咖啡市场趋近于饱和，下沉市场成为接下来的拓展重点；另一边，部分弱势品牌为了维持市场占有率，以店中店模式保持与消费者的连接。
在这些变化的共同作用下，中国咖啡市场也呈现出明显的价格“向下”。行业数据显示，从2023年9月到2025年9月，中国咖啡市场客单价从41元下降至26元，人均消费15元以下咖啡门店占比从29.8%上升至36.9%。
这其中，很大一部分影响因素来自于去年以来的新一轮外卖大战和即时零售大战。平台补贴之下的咖啡价格，下降到了一个令人咂舌的程度，吸引了更多原本不喝咖啡的人。这样的行业热潮中，受益最大的，也不是价格高、门店少的精品咖啡。
究其根本，精品咖啡这种集中于高线市场、针对高阶用户、走高质高价路线的咖啡品牌，很难获得“商业咖啡”那样的成长，最终只能回归到自己的小众定位中。
1971年，来自学术界的杰瑞·鲍德温、戈登·鲍克和泽夫·西格尔，在西雅图派克市场创立星巴克。1982年，被星巴克气质所吸引的霍华德·舒尔茨加入，成为营销主管。
到底是走精品小众路线，还是施行大众连锁策略？彼时，星巴克也面临这样的选择。最终，市场帮星巴克选择了霍华德·舒尔茨，成就了这家全球门店4万多家的咖啡巨头。
创立初期，星巴克从旧金山的Peet’s Coffee那里学习咖啡的技巧与艺术，所以，Peet’s Coffee也被称为“咖啡界的祖师爷”。
后来，星巴克创始人之一杰瑞·鲍德温收购了Peet’s Coffee，继续其精品、小众路线。
直到2012年，德国财团JAB接手Peet’s Coffee，“补课式”重新开启全球扩张，才有了现在的皮爷咖啡，以及后面的故事。
Manner、M Stand、拉瓦萨、蓝瓶咖啡，以及众多中国精品咖啡品牌，可能也要面临这样的抉择，到底是坚守自己的精品、小众定位，还是成为那个均衡的多面手？
The long-awaited transaction in the premium coffee market has finally settled. Recently, Luckin Coffee's controlling shareholder, Dazheng Capital, has reached an agreement with Nestle to acquire Blue Bottle Coffee's global stores for less than $400 million.
This is another 'decisive transaction' in the premium coffee market after the parent company of Piye Coffee sold itself and restructured last year. This means that the boutique coffee market is entering a "consolidation period" after the ebb tide. Next, there will be more and more projects placed on the shelves.
Why did the booming trend of boutique coffee in the past few years ultimately fail to emerge as a top brand? Is it true that after paying a huge price here, capital can only put an end to it?
Premium coffee refers to coffee made from premium coffee beans, often emphasizing the origin, craftsmanship, and flavor, highlighting the style and artistry of store decoration, and taking the route of high quality and high price.
This positioning determines that premium coffee can only gain the favor of a few deep coffee users, and its products, stores, and brand operation models do not conform to market logic and industry trends.
Ultimately, the expansion of specialty coffee in recent years is just a byproduct of the comprehensive development of the Chinese coffee market. When the market starts a "downward" trend in coffee, premium coffee that still emphasizes "upward" will find it difficult to break out of niche logic and will ultimately be squeezed into the corners of the market.
What is premium coffee?
Is it the hero who creates the situation, or the situation that succeeds the hero? In the coffee market, there is a different interpretation.
Before 2017, coffee was purely a niche beverage for most Chinese people, with only a small percentage occasionally trying it.
Although Nestle introduced instant coffee to the Chinese market as early as the 1980s and Starbucks opened its first store in Beijing Guomao in 1999, the coffee audience was quite limited at that time, the market size was small, and growth was slow.
In 2017, Ruixing came out of the world, using Internet thinking and industrial operation mode to drive down the price of freshly ground coffee, and cultivated more coffee users through tea based innovation of coffee; In 2022, Kudi was founded to further lock the price of freshly ground coffee at 9.9 yuan.
Under the long-term cultivation of brands such as Starbucks, Luckin Coffee, and Kudi, the Chinese coffee market has grown rapidly, with 260000 coffee shops supporting the billion dollar freshly ground coffee market.
When coffee transformed from a niche beverage to a popular drink, some deep users upgraded their demands and began to pay attention to the origin, processing methods, and flavor characteristics of coffee beans, pursuing higher levels of coffee, space, and cultural enjoyment. As a result, boutique coffee emerged.
Premium coffee emphasizes quality more, and Arabica coffee beans are just the foundation; They also highlight individuality, and a single origin is a common label; Their store location and decoration standards are higher, and some brands even emphasize one store, one design.
In the descriptions of boutique coffee brands and their fans, this is a relative concept: Starbucks, Luckin Coffee, Couture, and others are all "commercial coffee", while themselves are "boutique coffee".
In October 2015, Han Yulong and his wife Lu Jianxia opened a coffee shop of only 2 square meters on Nanyang Road in Jing'an, Shanghai. This weak light, after the capital intervention in 2018 and the notes of Temasek, Meituan Dragon Ball and ByteDance in 2021, ignited the spark of boutique coffee.
During that period, M Stand、 Algebraic scientists, Grid coffee, Seesaw and other brands have successively established or received renewed attention from the market and capital, and the boutique coffee track has gradually become lively.
In fact, such stories have already happened in the European and American markets where coffee culture and industry are more mature. The European and American coffee markets have upgraded, giving rise to boutique coffee brands such as Peet's Coffee, Lavazza, and Blue Bottle Coffee.
After the growth of the Chinese coffee market and the emergence of local specialty coffee, these foreign specialty coffee brands have successively entered the Chinese market through direct sales, franchising, joint ventures, and other forms, transforming into brands such as Piye Coffee, Lavasa, and Blue Bottle Coffee.
So, the Chinese coffee industry entered a new generation, gradually iterating from the earliest desktop (Shangdao Coffee), American (Starbucks), transitional Korean style (Man Coffee), and currently mainstream Chinese style (Luckin Coffee, Kudi) stores to the fifth generation - boutique coffee.
These premium coffee brands are highly sought after by heavy coffee enthusiasts. If coffee consumption has a hierarchy, then they must feel like they are at the top of the industry.
Unable to escape the fate of a niche audience
However, behind the trend of specialty coffee, the market momentum has not been sustained.
After the explosive growth of the coffee market in recent years, Starbucks has strengthened its third space concept and steadily increased the number of stores to 8000; Fast Coffee Luckin Coffee and Kudi Coffee have reached 30000 and 18000 stores respectively. Among them, Kudi, established in 2022, has a growth rate that has caught the attention of the global coffee industry.
In addition, leveraging the advantages of existing stores, K Coffee under KFC, McCafe under McDonald's, Lucky Coffee under Meixue Ice City, and Shanghai Cafe under Shanghai Auntie have all entered the top camp in the industry.
Among the top ten coffee brands in China in 2024, only Manner is a premium coffee brand. Having 2000 stores in 10 years is enough to dominate the boutique coffee market, but it is already seriously lagging behind in the entire coffee industry.
Behind Manner, despite the high popularity and Internet popularity of M Stand, Algebraist,% Arabica, Blue Bottle and other brands, there are not many stores and they are still niche brands.
Moreover, based on recent market trends, capital's enthusiasm for premium coffee is gradually diminishing.
As early as 2021, when the Manner project was at its peak of reputation, early investors cashed out and left today; At the beginning of 2025, Xiaohongshu will withdraw from the M Stand project; In August 2025, American beverage giant KDP acquired JDE Peet's, the parent company of Peet's Coffee, for 130 billion yuan in cash, to restructure its beverage and coffee business.
Nestle is putting its acquired Blue Bottle Coffee on shelves, while rumors in the market suggest that a leading Chinese specialty coffee brand is about to sell itself.
Why did the boutique coffee craze that was booming a few years ago quietly come to an end?
Before discussing this topic, the first basic question to answer is: What is the most important thing for Chinese consumers when it comes to a cup of coffee? Is it the coffee itself, store space, convenience, or the culture behind it?
In the coffee market, those who pursue top-notch coffee taste are always in the minority. If you conduct a blind test of American and latte brands at various levels and for major coffee brands, boutique coffee may only know how weak their audience base is. Introducing the majority of consumers into the coffee market through raw coconut latte, orange C latte, etc. is not their strong suit.
Moreover, in the so-called high-quality coffee market, Starbucks, Luckin Coffee, and Kudi all have their own solutions. Premium coffee brands are no longer the only option.
For the vast majority of Chinese coffee users, what they want may not be absolutely good coffee or absolutely cheap, but a balance between quality and price, as well as high-quality service.
Starbucks, Luckin Coffee, and Kudi's stores and signs scattered throughout the streets and alleys are a manifestation of brand dominance. However, the niche and high cost operation mode of specialty coffee has constrained the speed of store expansion, making it difficult to reach a large number of consumers, and ultimately trapped in the corner of the market.
So, when the market demystifies specialty coffee and the traffic and prestige they gain through positioning are no longer there, what do specialty coffee brands rely on to continue winning consumers?
Due to its premium positioning and lack of economies of scale, the single store and cup costs of premium coffee are higher. In recent years, the soaring prices of coffee beans may be becoming the last straw to overwhelm them.
In recent years, coffee futures prices have skyrocketed, repeatedly breaking historical highs and maintaining high levels of operation. The price of coffee beans can easily reach tens of yuan per kilogram, and the price of premium coffee beans is even higher, with a unit price of thousands of yuan being no surprise.
Top brands such as Starbucks, Luckin Coffee, and Kudi have strengthened their market discourse power through supply chain layout and capacity construction. Smaller specialty coffees often lack such strength and are almost helpless in the face of market fluctuations.
On one hand, there is a premium positioning that relies on survival, and on the other hand, the continuous rise in costs of raw materials, stores, and other factors. Specialty coffee shops cannot see short-term profit potential, and their long-term expansion space is also locked in. Finally, the market is gradually calming down.
The coffee market is declining
Premium coffee shops that have realized the crisis have already adjusted their strategies to better adapt to the real market.
Faced with fierce competition in the coffee market, originally slightly arrogant specialty coffees have to join the industry competition. Some directly reduce prices; Some promote affordable sub brands, such as Ora Coffee under Peet's Coffee, which is only 9.9 yuan in the American style; However, companies such as Bixing Coffee and Seesaw Coffee are using small store models to catch up with the expansion path of commercial coffee.
For the popular "coffee+" strategy in recent years, whether it is catering, retail business or experiential activities, boutique coffee shops have also joined in one after another.
The boldest one is undoubtedly Piye Coffee. Faced with the issue of store management efficiency, measures have been introduced to encourage consumers to take seats. This is almost the only coffee shop in the Chinese market that requires customers to consume before being seated. Going to a coffee shop as an atmosphere group is always a minority, and this strategy of Piye Coffee may deter a considerable number of neutral consumers.
However, judging from the current market situation, the fine-tuning of these business strategies has achieved very limited results and cannot solve the fundamental problem of premium coffee.
The fundamental reason is that after several years of comprehensive development, the direction of China's coffee industry is gradually "downward".
The product is' downward '. In recent years, product innovation in the coffee market has mainly focused on the beverage transformation of coffee, targeting the general public. The ultimate coffee advocated by boutique coffee is still niche.
The market is' down '. Under the leadership of Luckin Coffee, Cushman&Wakefield, and Starbucks, the coffee market in central cities is approaching saturation, with the focus on expanding into lower tier markets; On the other hand, some weaker brands maintain their market share by adopting a store in store model to stay connected with consumers.
Under the combined effect of these changes, the Chinese coffee market has also shown a clear downward trend in prices. Industry data shows that from September 2023 to September 2025, the average unit price of coffee in the Chinese market will decrease from 41 yuan to 26 yuan, and the proportion of coffee shops with per capita consumption below 15 yuan will increase from 29.8% to 36.9%.
A large part of the influencing factors come from the new round of food delivery and instant retail wars since last year. The coffee prices subsidized by the platform have dropped to an astonishing level, attracting more people who originally didn't drink coffee. In this industry boom, the biggest beneficiary is not the high-end coffee with high prices and few stores.
Fundamentally, boutique coffee, a coffee brand that focuses on the high-end market, targets high-end users, and follows a high-quality and high price route, finds it difficult to achieve the growth of "commercial coffee" and can only return to its niche positioning.
In 1971, Jerry Baldwin, Gordon Bowker, and Zeff Siegel from academia founded Starbucks in Pike Place Market, Seattle. In 1982, Howard Schultz, attracted by Starbucks' temperament, joined as the marketing director.
Should we pursue a boutique niche route or implement a mass chain strategy? At that time, Starbucks also faced such a choice. In the end, the market helped Starbucks choose Howard Schultz, creating this coffee giant with over 40000 stores worldwide.
In the early days of its establishment, Starbucks learned the techniques and art of coffee from Peet's Coffee in San Francisco, so Peet's Coffee is also known as the "ancestor of the coffee industry".
Later, Jerry Baldwin, one of the founders of Starbucks, acquired Peet's Coffee and continued its boutique, niche route.
It wasn't until 2012, when the German consortium JAB took over Peet's Coffee, that the global expansion was restarted in a "remedial" manner, giving rise to the current Piye Coffee and the story that followed.
Manner、M Stand、 Lavasa, Blue Bottle Coffee, and many other Chinese specialty coffee brands may also face such a choice: whether to stick to their boutique and niche positioning, or become the balanced versatile one?