经纬早班车｜美EIA预计石油供应受阻将持续到2027年；哥伦比亚咖啡出口在震后基本停滞Jingwei Early Bus - EIA predicts that oil supply disruptions will continue until 2027; Colombian coffee exports have basically stagnated after the earthquake
Overnight Heavy Weighing
The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 2.94%
On Tuesday (11th) Eastern Time, the US stock market further declined from its historical high. As of the close, the Nasdaq fell 0.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.34%, and the S&P 500 index fell 0.32%.
Most of the "Big Seven" tech giants fell, with Tesla and Meta slightly rising, Google falling more than 3%, Amazon falling more than 2%, Apple falling more than 1%, and Nvidia and Microsoft slightly weakening.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.87%. Optical communication concept stocks rebounded, Coherent、 Maiweier Technology rose by over 1%, while Lumentum saw a slight increase. Most storage concept stocks rose, with SK Hynix up over 4% and SanDisk and Seagate Technology up over 2%. Semiconductor rebounds, ASML rises by over 3%, AMD、 Anson Semiconductor and NXP Semiconductors rose by over 1%, ARM、 Intel and Qualcomm saw slight increases.
Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index dropping 2.94%. Tencent Music fell nearly 12%, Land Control and Bilibili fell more than 5%, JD Group, NIO, New Oriental, NetEase, BOSS Zhipin fell more than 4%, Beike, Miniso, Alibaba, Baidu Group fell more than 3%, Gaotu Group and TAL Education Group fell more than 2%; Zaiding Pharmaceutical rose by over 10%, while Wanguo Data rose by over 3%.
CNBC believes that investors will focus on a key set of inflation data next, with July CPI to be released on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. After the weak employment report complicated the Federal Reserve's expectations for the economic outlook, these data became particularly important.
Dennis Follmer, Chief Investment Officer of Montis Financial, stated that "CPI data is expected to continue to decline, which will further support the Federal Reserve's rationale for keeping interest rates unchanged rather than raising them. ”
Iranian senior official: US must accept Iran's conditions in exchange for opening Strait of Hormuz
On the 11th local time, Reza Reza, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that the United States is the root cause of insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and the Gulf of Oman. The United States has launched an illegal war against Iran, endangering the entire region. The Strait of Hormuz will not open unless the United States changes its behavior and accepts Iran's conditions
He stated that the United States must end the war, pay for the frozen funds in Iran, and meet other conditions conveyed to them through intermediaries.
He pointed out that if Iran and Oman reach an agreement on the route of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the agreement will be handled separately from the issue of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
EIA predicts that oil supply disruptions will continue until 2027
International oil prices continue to rise, with light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rising by $1.07 to close at $83.20 per barrel, an increase of 1.3%; The London Brent crude oil futures price for October delivery rose by $1.19 to close at $88.91 per barrel, an increase of 1.36%.
According to Bloomberg, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest outlook report, raising its 2026 gasoline and diesel price forecasts by 3.7% and 5.4% respectively, and raising its 2027 retail gasoline price forecast by 6.5% compared to a month ago.
Meanwhile, EIA predicts that the oil supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict will continue until 2027.
France hits hard on telemarketing
According to the Associated Press, France has introduced a new law prohibiting unsolicited telemarketing, aimed at protecting consumers from intrusive marketing and protecting vulnerable groups from fraudulent business practices.
According to reports, previously in France, people who wanted to avoid receiving promotional calls had to register their phone numbers with government operated service agencies, but consumer groups said that some call centers ignored this list.
The French government stated that this law is a response to consumer complaints over the years. According to authorities' estimates, about three-quarters of people in France receive at least one sales call per week, with many receiving more than one call.
The report points out that illegal callers can be fined up to 75000 euros per call, while companies face fines of up to 375000 euros per call.
Consumers can authorize and agree to receive marketing calls, and if there is already a contractual relationship between the company and the customer, they can also contact the customer and offer new business benefits.
Colombian coffee exports have basically stagnated after the earthquake
According to Bloomberg, the head of a coffee exporters association stated that coffee exports in Colombia have come to a standstill due to a devastating earthquake that disrupted operations at the country's major ports and caused roadblocks along key highways.
According to reports, port and terminal management personnel are assessing the extent of the losses and have suspended or restricted coffee reception operations. Traders are also weighing the potential supply and logistics impacts of the earthquake on the world's second-largest producer of specialty coffee beans.
According to a report from the Colombian Municipal Federation on the 11th local time, the death toll from the strong earthquake that occurred in the country on August 10th has risen to 234.
Sports brand On's performance fell short of expectations and was sold off by investors
According to Bloomberg, Swiss sports brand On's sales performance in the second quarter fell short of expectations, and its stock price experienced its largest historical decline.
According to reports, the stock plummeted 22% in early trading in New York, marking the largest single day drop since On's initial public offering in September 2021.
The brand has also slightly lowered its sales forecast for this year, stating that it now expects a growth rate of "around 20%", compared to the previously optimistic target of "at least a 23% increase".
According to the report analysis, due to many brands attracting customers through price reduction promotions, On Company hopes to maintain the high prices of its sports shoes and new clothing, resulting in poor sales prospects. The co CEO of On Company stated in an interview that this trend is particularly evident among wholesale customers in the United States.
According to Reuters, On executives stated that the company will not compromise its full price sales strategy in order to increase sales.
Today's Focus (Beijing Time)
16: IEA Monthly Crude Oil Market Report
20: 30 US July non seasonally adjusted CPI
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Xinsheng Technology (920093)
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Financial Hotspots
The Ministry of Water Resources has launched a Level IV emergency response for flood prevention in Beijing and Tianjin
According to the forecast, from the night of August 11th to the 13th, Beijing and Tianjin will experience heavy precipitation, mainly moderate to heavy rain, due to the combined influence of residual cloud systems from Typhoon "White Dolphin" and cold air moving southward; The Yongding River, Liuli River, Xiaoqing River in Beijing, and the Ji Canal in Tianjin will be flooded, and the mountain flood disaster and flood risk of small and medium-sized rivers in the rainstorm area will be high. The Ministry of Water Resources launched a Level IV emergency response for flood prevention in Beijing and Tianjin at 22:30 on August 11th.
The new stock allocation ratio of the Beijing Stock Exchange has reached the upper limit of 30%
Recently, two new stocks, Xinsheng Technology and Shuangying Group, announced on the Beijing Stock Exchange that the allocation ratio for strategic investors in the IPO process is 30%. This arrangement breaks the default 10% allocation ratio for new stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange for some time. According to the Securities Times, interviewees stated that this is mainly based on the current market situation, and more allocation ratio is expected to boost the performance of new stocks and reduce the number of IPOs.
The Thai government announces the suspension of issuing gun purchase permits
According to the Thai government website on the 11th, the Thai government issued a notice announcing the suspension of issuing gun purchase permits and conducting a nationwide inspection of permits for unfinished gun transactions. There have been frequent shooting incidents in Thailand recently. According to Thai media reports, a shooting occurred in the office building of the administrative organization in Nuanburi Province on the 10th. The chairman of the administrative organization was shot in the head and died despite rescue efforts. On the 7th, a shooting occurred at a middle school in Nuanburi Prefecture, resulting in 9 deaths.
The French central bank expects economic growth of 0.2% in the third quarter
On August 11th local time, the French central bank released its latest economic survey report, predicting that France's gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of this year will grow by 0.2% month on month, which is the same as the growth rate in the second quarter.
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