咖啡空前大洗牌：一年新开5.3万家，净增只有1065家？Unprecedented coffee reshuffle: 53000 new stores opened in a year, with a net increase of only 1065?

来源：界面新闻

文｜咖门

价格战过后的咖啡赛道，用“惨烈”来形容毫不过分。

数据显示，近一年新开门店5.3万家，净增长数却只有1065家。

这是一场前所未有的行业大洗牌。瑞幸仅2026上半年净增5000家，总门店达3.6万家；挪瓦咖啡、幸运咖也在快速扩张。另一边，大量中小咖啡品牌刹车、掉队。

我们用数据记录了过去一年中国咖啡市场最残酷的分化轨迹。

一、咖啡大局观：瑞幸断层领先，形成“四个梯队”

数据显示，全国咖啡门店总数22.7万家，已形成“一超多强”格局（以下数据来自窄门餐眼，统计口径与品牌或有不同）。

第一梯队（3万+）瑞幸以3.6万店断层领先。覆盖347城，门店数是第二名库迪（1.5万家）的2倍以上。

第二梯队（8000-2万），代表品牌库迪、幸运咖、挪瓦。

库迪门店15599家，覆盖358城，是咖啡品牌覆盖城市最广的品牌。库迪的“联营模式”使其快速渗透到瑞幸尚未覆盖的空白市场，两者在多个城市的门店距离常常不足500米，“贴身肉搏”已成为常态。

幸运咖最近一年净增3775家，背靠蜜雪冰城的万店供应链体系，在下沉市场扩张有较大优势。挪瓦咖啡过去一年净增3264家。

星巴克中国与博裕资本成立合资公司后，目标开店至2万家，未来每年需净增约1200家。近期博裕启动前山姆CMO张青改革供应链和运营效率，改善星巴克中国的经营模型。

第三梯队（2000-3000家）：肯悦咖啡3426家，过去一年净增1768家；Manner2661家，净增562家；沪咖2014家，过去一年净增为负。

第四梯队（1000家以下）：Tims天好咖啡、M Stand、Peet's等，多以精品化或区域化定位为主。

小结：2026年，咖啡品牌持续三年的极端价格战迎来集体退潮，行业共识已然形成：低价竞争不可持续。《2026中国城市咖啡发展报告》显示，2025年中国咖啡人均年饮用杯数已提升至28.57杯，相比2023年的16.74杯增长了约70%。行业已从“空间体验和品牌溢价”彻底转向“触达的便利性与极致性价比”。

二、谁在狂飙？——增速最快的品牌

高增速品牌背后有不同的增长逻辑。

仅2026上半年净增5000家，第二季度更是平均每天净新增约30家门店——这种扩张速度在全球咖啡连锁历史上都极为罕见。瑞幸已是中国乃至全球门店数量最大的咖啡连锁品牌。

不过，2026年第二季度，瑞幸自营门店同店销售额同比下降5.3%，与此同时，月均交易客户数达到1.127亿人，同比增长23%——人更多了，但单店产出却在下降。

近一年净增3775家，增长率约45%，但幸运咖的最新动向是主动控制速度。

2026年7月，品牌公开明确2026年全年新增门店控制在2000家以内，下半年控制在1000家以内。战略重心向地级市及以上城市的核心商业街、高潜力商圈倾斜，并投入5亿元进行品牌升级和门店扶持。

近一年净增3264家，仅次于瑞幸和幸运咖。挪瓦目前约80%是店中店，以与美宜佳合作为主。据南都湾财社记者统计，广深两地便利店门店占比超过95%。

2026年7月，挪瓦推出4.98万元加盟新政，继续以“店中店”模式加速扩张。以极低的边际成本快速铺开网点，这是咖啡行业区别于茶饮行业最独特的扩张路径。

近一年净增1768家，增长率52%。依托肯德基“肩并肩”模式低成本快速扩张，目前门店数在3426家，在中国现磨咖啡品牌中排名第六。刚过去的二季度新增约700家门店，目标2027年底达到5000家。

快餐巨头的咖啡野心正在改写行业格局。与独立咖啡品牌不同，肯悦的扩张，本质上是百胜中国“用咖啡激活肯德基存量门店资产”的战略落地。

三、中小品牌中的黑马——“小而美”的增长故事

规模不大但增速惊人的品牌，代表着细分赛道或新模式的潜力方向。

Cubic3 Coffee三立方咖啡：2021年成立于上海，过去一年净增341家，增长率90%，总门店377家。定位平价精品咖啡，追求经典咖啡品质，但将客单控制在15元左右，门店密集分布在社区和商圈。

Grid Coffee：过去一年净增66家，总门店151家。成立于2021年，由猿辅导母公司投资，定位精品咖啡，坚持单一产地咖啡豆，不添加糖浆。选址以北京、上海、成都等高城市的“核心商圈+高流量场景”为主，是精品咖啡品牌中加速扩张的代表。

小咖咖啡：净增336家，增长率超60%，总门店550家。聚焦轻量化门店模型与数字化运营，靠店中店模式快速复制，“技术驱动”路径正在被验证。

NNCAFE诺诺咖啡：是一家网吧连锁咖啡，还卖其他饮品及餐食，近一年净增367家，增长率99%，总门店371家。

佳宜咖啡：是湖南本地知名便利店“新佳宜”的自有咖啡品牌，过去一年净增255家，总门店265家，显示出便利店咖啡的爆发力。

store by.jpg：过去一年净增67家，总门店175家，2017年在广州创立，主打窗口店模式，本土特色强，绝大部分门店位于广东——极致精品化深耕，单城密度高。

这些品牌虽然当前规模不大，但在大连锁挤压下依然可以规模开店，证明了细分市场仍然存在结构性机会。

四、城市格局变化——咖啡店的“密度战争”

门店总数≠密度≠活力，三组数据揭示城市咖啡格局的变化。

门店总数TOP5： 上海（9708）、广州（7581）、北京（6705）、深圳（6474）、成都（6400）。一线城市仍是咖啡门店最密集的区域，上海以近万家的门店数量稳居全国第一。

每万人门店数TOP5： 拉萨（7.62）、丽江（5.86）、海口（5.22）、珠海（5.17）、江门（4.88）。小城密度反超一线——拉萨、丽江等旅游城市的咖啡密度远超上海（3.91），“雪山咖啡”“高原咖啡”正在成为旅游“标配”场景；咖啡消费正从一线城市的白领标配下沉为更多地方的日常消费品。

近一年净增长： 深圳（+321）、西安（+378）、青岛（+245）、武汉（+193）。深圳、西安等城市仍在快速扩容，而上海（-233）、广州（-59）等成熟市场已进入存量博弈。这一趋势与茶饮行业高度一致：一线城市饱和，新一线和强二线城市成为增量主战场。

五、咖啡下半场：从“谁开得快”进入“谁活得久”

1、行业仍在扩容，但增量被头部吃掉

行业进入“巨头时代”，近一年门店增量主要被TOP5品牌吃掉——瑞幸、挪瓦、库迪、幸运咖、肯悦五家合计净增超过2.1万家。

头部品牌凭借规模效应、供应链优势和品牌认知，正在构建越来越深的护城河。增量正在向头部集中，中小品牌的生存空间被进一步压缩。

2、价格战退潮，竞争重心转向“升级”

幸运咖主动控制开店速度，库迪暂停省会以上城市加盟，瑞幸面临同店销售下滑压力——所有头部品牌都在传递同一个信号：规模扩张的时代正在结束，精细化运营的时代已经到来。

2025年的咖啡行业关键词是“万店狂奔”，2026年的关键词正在变成“单店盈利”。当门店密度达到一定程度后，品牌的核心竞争力从“开更多的店”变成了“让每一家店都赚钱”。

3、“店中店”模式或能走出一条新路

挪瓦咖啡已验证这条路可行，未来可能有更多品牌效仿这一模式。比如依附网吧的NNCAFE诺诺咖啡，嵌入便利店的佳宜咖啡，近一年分别净增367家、255家，都印证“店中店”模式的优势。

把咖啡变成了便利店、超市等场景的“插件”，大幅降低了扩张的边际成本。咖啡行业的下一个万店品牌，可能靠“店中店”嵌入出来的。

4、下沉市场仍是最大增量来源

瑞幸超四成门店开在三线及以下城市，幸运咖聚焦地级市核心商圈，咖啡消费正从一线城市走向县城和社区。

5、精品咖啡的“天花板”明显

幸运咖等平价咖啡的扩张速度，是M Stand、Peet's等精品咖啡的5-10倍。在当前的中国咖啡市场，“便捷”和“性价比”的优先级远高于“空间体验”和“品牌溢价”。精品咖啡并非没有市场，但它的增长天花板，远比平价咖啡来得更早、更低。

价格战退潮，万店亦非终点。咖啡行业的竞争，已经从“谁跑得快”变成了“谁活得久”。

总的来说，当行业从“开店竞赛”进入“单店盈利”的下半场，真正的护城河，是供应链壁垒、单店效率和用户黏性。

Source: Interface News

Article | Coffee Gate

The coffee track after the price war can be described as' brutal 'without exaggeration.

Data shows that in the past year, 53000 new stores have been opened, but the net growth is only 1065.

This is an unprecedented industry reshuffle. Luckin Coffee only saw a net increase of 5000 stores in the first half of 2026, with a total of 36000 stores; Novacoffee and Lucky Coffee are also rapidly expanding. On the other hand, a large number of small and medium-sized coffee brands are braking and falling behind.

We have recorded the most brutal differentiation trajectory of the Chinese coffee market in the past year using data.

1、 Coffee's overall perspective: Luckin Coffee leads the fault line and forms "four tiers"

Data shows that there are a total of 227000 coffee shops in China, forming a pattern of "one super and many strong" (the following data comes from narrow door restaurants, and the statistical caliber may differ from brands).

The first tier (30000+) Luckin Coffee leads with a 36000 store gap. Covering 347 cities, the number of stores is more than twice that of the second ranked Kudi (15000).

The second tier (80-20000) represents brands such as Kudi, Lucky Coffee, and Novah.

Kudi has 15599 stores covering 358 cities, making it the coffee brand with the widest coverage in cities. Kudi's "joint venture model" has enabled it to quickly penetrate the blank market that Luckin Coffee has not yet covered. The distance between the two stores in multiple cities is often less than 500 meters, and "close combat" has become the norm.

Lucky Coffee has seen a net increase of 3775 stores in the past year, backed by the Wandian supply chain system of Meixue Ice City, giving it a significant advantage in expanding into lower tier markets. Novacoffee has seen a net increase of 3264 stores in the past year.

After Starbucks China and Boyu Capital established a joint venture, the goal is to open 20000 stores, with a net increase of approximately 1200 stores per year in the future. Recently, before the launch of Boyu, Sam's Club CMO Zhang Qing has reformed the supply chain and operational efficiency, improving Starbucks China's business model.

Third tier (2000-3000): 3426 Kenyue Coffee, with a net increase of 1768 over the past year; Manner2661 households, with a net increase of 562 households; In 2014, Shanghai coffee shops had a negative net increase in the past year.

The fourth tier (below 1000): Tims Tianhao Coffee, M Stand, Peet's, etc., mostly focused on boutique or regional positioning.

Summary: In 2026, the extreme price war that coffee brands have been engaged in for three years will experience a collective decline, and the industry consensus has formed that low price competition is unsustainable. The 2026 China Urban Coffee Development Report shows that by 2025, the per capita annual consumption of coffee in China has increased to 28.57 cups, an increase of about 70% compared to 16.74 cups in 2023. The industry has completely shifted from "spatial experience and brand premium" to "accessibility and ultimate cost-effectiveness".

2、 Who is running wild? ——The fastest growing brand

There are different growth logics behind high growth brands.

Only in the first half of 2026, there was a net increase of 5000 stores, and in the second quarter, the average daily net increase was about 30 stores - this expansion speed is extremely rare in the history of global coffee chains. Luckin Coffee is already the coffee chain brand with the largest number of stores in China and even globally.

However, in the second quarter of 2026, the same store sales of Luckin Coffee's self operated stores decreased by 5.3% year-on-year. At the same time, the average monthly transaction customers reached 112.7 million, an increase of 23% year-on-year - more people, but the output of individual stores is declining.

In the past year, there has been a net increase of 3775 companies, with a growth rate of about 45%. However, the latest trend of Lucky Coffee is to actively control the speed.

In July 2026, the brand publicly stated that the number of new stores added for the whole year of 2026 should be controlled within 2000, and within 1000 in the second half of the year. The strategic focus is tilted towards the core commercial streets and high potential commercial districts of prefecture level cities and above, and 500 million yuan is invested in brand upgrading and store support.

In the past year, there has been a net increase of 3264 companies, second only to Luckin Coffee and Lucky Coffee. Currently, about 80% of Novas is in store, mainly in collaboration with Meiyijia. According to a reporter from Nanduwan Caishe, convenience stores in Guangzhou and Shenzhen account for over 95% of the total.

In July 2026, Novartis launched a new franchise policy worth 49800 yuan, continuing to accelerate expansion through a "store in store" model. Rapidly expanding branches at extremely low marginal costs is the most unique expansion path that distinguishes the coffee industry from the tea beverage industry.

In the past year, there has been a net increase of 1768 companies, with a growth rate of 52%. Relying on KFC's "shoulder to shoulder" model for low-cost and rapid expansion, the current number of stores is 3426, ranking sixth among Chinese freshly ground coffee brands. In the past second quarter, approximately 700 new stores were added, with the goal of reaching 5000 stores by the end of 2027.

The coffee ambitions of fast food giants are reshaping the industry landscape. Unlike independent coffee brands, the expansion of Kenyue is essentially the implementation of Yum China's strategy of "activating KFC's existing store assets with coffee".

3、 The dark horse among small and medium-sized brands - the growth story of "small and beautiful"

A small but rapidly growing brand represents the potential direction of segmented tracks or new models.

Cubic3 Coffee, founded in Shanghai in 2021, has seen a net increase of 341 stores in the past year, with a growth rate of 90%, and a total of 377 stores. Positioned as affordable boutique coffee, pursuing classic coffee quality, but keeping customer orders at around 15 yuan, with stores densely distributed in communities and commercial districts.

Grid Coffee: Net increase of 66 stores in the past year, with a total of 151 stores. Established in 2021, invested by the parent company of Yuanfudao, positioned as premium coffee, adhering to a single origin coffee beans without adding syrup. The site selection is mainly based on the "core business districts+high traffic scenarios" of high cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, which represents the accelerated expansion of boutique coffee brands.

Xiaoka Coffee: Net increase of 336 stores, with a growth rate of over 60%, and a total of 550 stores. Focusing on lightweight store models and digital operations, the "technology driven" path is being validated by rapidly replicating the store in store model.

NNCAFE Nono Coffee: It is a chain of internet cafes that also sells other beverages and meals. In the past year, it has a net increase of 367 stores, with a growth rate of 99%, and a total of 371 stores.

Jiayi Coffee: It is the proprietary coffee brand of the well-known local convenience store "New Jiayi" in Hunan, with a net increase of 255 stores and a total of 265 stores in the past year, demonstrating the explosive power of convenience store coffee.

Store by.jpg: In the past year, there has been a net increase of 67 stores, with a total of 175 stores. It was founded in Guangzhou in 2017 and focuses on the window store model, with strong local characteristics. The vast majority of stores are located in Guangdong - with deep cultivation of ultimate boutique products and high density of single cities.

Although these brands are currently not large in scale, they are still able to open stores on a large scale under the pressure of Dalian Lock, proving that there are still structural opportunities in the segmented market.

4、 Urban Pattern Changes - The "Density War" of Coffee Shops

The total number of stores ≠ density ≠ vitality, and three sets of data reveal changes in urban coffee patterns.

Top 5 stores in total: Shanghai (9708), Guangzhou (7581), Beijing (6705), Shenzhen (6474), Chengdu (6400). First tier cities are still the most densely populated areas for coffee shops, with Shanghai firmly ranking first in the country with nearly 10000 stores.

Top 5 stores per 10000 people: Lhasa (7.62), Lijiang (5.86), Haikou (5.22), Zhuhai (5.17), Jiangmen (4.88). The density of small towns has surpassed that of first tier cities - the coffee density in tourist cities such as Lhasa and Lijiang far exceeds that of Shanghai (3.91), and "snow mountain coffee" and "plateau coffee" are becoming the "standard" scenes for tourism; Coffee consumption is shifting from being a standard item for white-collar workers in first tier cities to a daily consumer product in more places.

Net growth in the past year: Shenzhen (+321), Xi'an (+378), Qingdao (+245), Wuhan (+193). Cities such as Shenzhen and Xi'an are still rapidly expanding, while mature markets such as Shanghai (-233) and Guangzhou (-59) have entered a stock game. This trend is highly consistent with the tea beverage industry: first tier cities are saturated, and new first tier and strong second tier cities have become the main battlefield for growth.

5、 Coffee Second Half: From 'Who drives fast' to 'Who lives longer'

1. The industry is still expanding, but the increment is being eaten up by the top

The industry has entered the "era of giants", and in the past year, the increase in store growth has mainly been eaten up by the TOP5 brands - Luckin Coffee, Novartis, Kudi, Lucky Coffee, and Kenyue, with a total net increase of over 21000.

Top brands are building increasingly deep moats with economies of scale, supply chain advantages, and brand awareness. The increment is concentrating towards the top, and the survival space of small and medium-sized brands is further compressed.

2. Price war recedes, competition shifts focus to 'upgrading'

Lucky Coffee actively controls the speed of opening stores, while Kudi suspends franchise in cities above provincial capital. Luckin Coffee is facing downward pressure on same store sales - all top brands are sending the same signal: the era of scale expansion is coming to an end, and the era of refined operation has arrived.

The key word for the coffee industry in 2025 is "thousands of stores rushing", and the key word for 2026 is becoming "single store profitability". When the density of stores reaches a certain level, the core competitiveness of a brand shifts from "opening more stores" to "making every store make money".

3. The 'store in store' model may lead to a new path

Nova Coffee has verified that this road is feasible, and more brands may follow this model in the future. For example, NNCAFE Nono Coffee, which is attached to internet cafes, and Jiayi Coffee, which is embedded in convenience stores, have seen a net increase of 367 and 255 respectively in the past year, confirming the advantages of the "store in store" model.

Turning coffee into a "plugin" for convenience stores, supermarkets, and other scenarios significantly reduces the marginal cost of expansion. The next million store brand in the coffee industry may be embedded through "shop in shop".

4. The sinking market remains the largest source of incremental growth

More than 40% of Luckin Coffee's stores are located in third tier and below cities, while Luckin Coffee focuses on core business districts in prefecture level cities. Coffee consumption is moving from first tier cities to county towns and communities.

5. The 'ceiling' of premium coffee is obvious

The expansion speed of affordable coffee such as Lucky Coffee is 5-10 times that of premium coffee such as M Stand and Peet's. In the current Chinese coffee market, the priority of "convenience" and "cost-effectiveness" is far higher than "spatial experience" and "brand premium". Premium coffee is not without a market, but its growth ceiling is much earlier and lower than that of affordable coffee.

The price war is receding, and even the ten thousand stores are not the end. The competition in the coffee industry has shifted from 'who runs fast' to 'who lives longer'.

Overall, as the industry transitions from a "store opening competition" to the second half of "single store profitability", the real moats are supply chain barriers, single store efficiency, and user stickiness.