咖啡告别“蜜雪冰城”时刻Coffee bids farewell to the moment of 'Honey Snow Ice City'

咖啡涨价潮，正在悄悄到来。

一边是各大品牌涨价、“升咖”，一边是消费者感受到瑞幸、库迪们在“背刺”。

而针对这一趋势，我们在最近开展的FBIF2026上，通过近距离对话咖啡品牌、供应链，有了更直接的体会。

多位咖啡业内人士告诉伯虎财经，咖啡涨价是行业必然趋势。

咖啡品牌“升咖”，消费者感受到“背刺”

想成为“星巴克”，而不仅仅做“蜜雪冰城”，是咖啡赛道的新叙事。

4月19日，蜜雪集团旗下咖啡品牌幸运咖正式宣布，迪丽热巴、梁朝伟出任品牌全新代言人。这一举措，是幸运咖2026年品牌战略布局的一大举措。

在2026年幸运咖的业绩发布会上，幸运咖中国大区首席执行官潘国飞表示，要投入5亿元进行品牌升级和门店扶持。这也被解读为幸运咖的“升咖”计划。

想“升咖”的不只幸运咖。

4月2日起，Manner网红饮品“绿野仙踪”上调价格5元。4月7日起，所有门店的单品豆咖啡每杯再涨5块钱。据窄门餐眼数据显示，目前Manner在全国拥有2503家门店。

而3月，瑞幸咖啡的大股东、实控人大钲资本与雀巢达成协议，收购蓝瓶咖啡的全球门店资产。

再往前，瑞幸、库迪均在收紧9.9元咖啡活动。

消费者小梦曾是瑞幸咖啡“葡萄冰萃”的重度爱好者，喜欢到了“每天都要喝一杯”的程度。后来，瑞幸逐渐攀升的价格让她“望而生畏”，每次看完价格都觉得“算了算了，喝库迪吧”。小梦吐槽道，“它之前就是11块9或12块9，现在是17块9或21块9。”

蓝蓝已经把咖啡当成了每天的早餐选择，她最常喝库迪。但近来，蓝蓝也发现，库迪的价格变了。“我之前一般都喝9块9，后来它变成了12块9我还能接受，但是现在16块9，加大杯要17块9，我就不能接受了。”蓝蓝如是说。

“9.9元的咖啡不赚钱”

咖啡涨价，实际上有多重因素。最直接的影响是原料端成本提高。

巴西与越南等产地，作为咖啡主要产地，近年来频遭极端干旱、高温等极端天气，导致产量锐减。2025年，阿拉比卡咖啡豆的期货价格创下了47年来新高，一年内涨了118%。2026年，情况并没有变得乐观，咖啡豆价格始终高位承压。

咖啡烘焙商小陈深耕咖啡供应链领域已有五六年。他表示，受各种因素影响，企业的咖啡豆价格也有调整，比如某一款巴西原料的价格，从30元左右/千克涨至60多元/千克。

但在小陈看来，原材料成本提高只是咖啡涨价的其中一个因素，更关键的原因在于：商业咖啡不想继续做“赔钱生意”了，要开始追求盈利。

“以前的9块9，第一是可能不赚钱，第二可能是倒贴，第三可能靠其他的业务把利润抬上来。”小陈认为，算上运营等七七八八的成本，9.9元已接近一杯咖啡的成本价。

小陈进一步提到，连锁咖啡的成本也会转嫁到加盟商或联营伙伴，但其实他们都想赚钱。

在这种情况下，涨价成为了必然的选择。

在这一点上，咖啡从业者Eric持有同样的看法。他认为，“像幸运咖这样一杯咖啡卖五六元，是亏的。”

涨价，是当下咖啡行业的现状，同时也是行业发展到一定阶段的一种选择。

皮爷咖啡零售总经理在FBIF2026上接受媒体采访表示，“对于这个行业当中的很多玩家和品牌来说，慢慢会从相对低质量的价格竞争转为高质量的价值竞争，这个过渡我相信一定会快速发生。”

商业咖啡与精品咖啡的边界在变模糊

咖啡玩家接连涨价背后，一个不争的事实是，商业咖啡具备涨价的底气。

FBIF 2026现场，不只一位咖啡业内人士告诉伯虎财经，咖啡本身并不具备明显壁垒，A品牌有的，B品牌也可以买到。

而在这种情况下，商业咖啡与精品咖啡的边界也在变模糊。

小陈认为，商业咖啡与精品咖啡之间所用的原料等本质上没有太大区别，唯一的区别在情绪价值。精品咖啡的门店氛围与体验整体会更好。

但与此同时，精品咖啡受到价格战的打击比想象中的小。

皮爷咖啡零售总经理认为，价格战之下，对于消费者而言，咖啡的价值被严重弱化、稀释。但作为品牌，很开心看到这样的变化，市场通过低价优质的产品快速培育部分消费者对咖啡的需求。

上述人士提到，“我觉得整个咖啡市场是在变得越来越大且越来越好的。尽管大家都说很卷，有很多的价格战，但还是有非常多的玩家愿意参与进来，一定程度上也反映了这个行业是欣欣向荣的。”

越来越多消费者了解到咖啡这个品类，精品咖啡面对的客群也进一步增加。

在FBIF 2026现场的采访中，伯虎财经还了解到一些新的消费心声与动向。

商业咖啡提价后，大多数为十多元一杯。这样的定价，正在推动一些消费者转向选择精品咖啡。

不管是作为消费者的小梦，还是作为供应链从业者的小陈，都告诉伯虎财经，与其买一杯十多元的普通咖啡，不如再加一点钱买一杯体验更好的精品咖啡。

小陈认为，消费者对咖啡有了一定了解后，会希望喝到更好喝的咖啡，而不是向下追求更便宜的咖啡。

而这也是皮爷咖啡始终追求“小而美”的关键原因——希望保持住咖啡对于消费者的情绪价值。

写在最后

可以看到，经历平价化之后的咖啡行业，正在迎来平价之外新的发展。

而与其说商业咖啡与精品咖啡的边界在变模糊，不如说，整个咖啡行业正在加速重塑。瑞幸不再是过去的瑞幸，幸运咖不想继续做“蜜雪冰城”，皮爷咖啡不说自己是精品咖啡。

咖啡赛道的可能性，仍然充满想象空间。

本文源自：伯虎财经

作者：林恩

The coffee price surge is quietly approaching.

On one hand, major brands are raising prices and "upgrading coffee", while on the other hand, consumers feel that Luckin and Kudi are "backstabbing".

In response to this trend, we gained a more direct understanding through close conversations with coffee brands and supply chains at the recent FBIF2026.

Several coffee industry insiders told Bohu Finance that the rise in coffee prices is an inevitable trend in the industry.

Coffee brand 'promotes coffee', consumers feel 'backstabbing'

Becoming a "Starbucks" instead of just a "Milk Snow Ice City" is a new narrative in the coffee industry.

On April 19th, Lucky Coffee, a coffee brand under the Honey Snow Group, officially announced that Dilraba and Tony Leung would be the brand's new spokespersons. This measure is a major initiative for Lucky Coffee's brand strategic layout in 2026.

At the 2026 Lucky Coffee performance conference, Pan Guofei, CEO of Lucky Coffee China, stated that he will invest 500 million yuan in brand upgrades and store support. This is also interpreted as the "upgrade" plan of Lucky Coffee.

It's not just lucky people who want to "upgrade their status".

Starting from April 2nd, Manner's popular drink "The Wizard of Oz" has raised its price by 5 yuan. Starting from April 7th, the price of single bean coffee in all stores will increase by an additional 5 yuan per cup. According to data from Narrow Gate Restaurant, Manner currently has 2503 stores nationwide.

In March, Luckin Coffee's major shareholder and controlling shareholder, Renmin Capital, reached an agreement with Nestle to acquire the global store assets of Blue Bottle Coffee.

Moving forward, Luckin Coffee and Kudi are both tightening their 9.9 yuan coffee promotion.

Consumer Xiaomeng was once a heavy fan of Luckin Coffee's "Grape Ice Extract" and loved it to the point of "drinking a cup every day". Later on, Luckin's gradually rising prices made her feel intimidated, and every time she finished reading the prices, she thought, "Forget it, let's drink Kudi. Little Dream roast, "It used to be 11 yuan 9 or 12 yuan 9, but now it is 17 yuan 9 or 21 yuan 9."

Blue Blue has made coffee her daily breakfast choice, and she drinks Kudi the most often. But recently, Blue Blue has also noticed that the price of Kudi has changed. I used to usually drink 9.9 yuan, but when it became 12.9 yuan, I could still accept it. But now it's 16.9 yuan, and a larger cup costs 17.9 yuan, so I can't accept it, "said Lan Lan.

9.9 yuan of coffee doesn't make money

The price increase of coffee is actually due to multiple factors. The most direct impact is the increase in raw material costs.

Brazil and Vietnam, as the main coffee producing areas, have been frequently affected by extreme weather conditions such as drought and high temperatures in recent years, resulting in a sharp decline in production. In 2025, the futures price of Arabica coffee beans reached a 47 year high, rising 118% within a year. In 2026, the situation did not become optimistic, and coffee bean prices remained under high pressure.

Coffee roaster Xiao Chen has been deeply involved in the coffee supply chain for five to six years. He said that due to various factors, the prices of coffee beans in enterprises have also been adjusted, such as the price of a certain Brazilian raw material rising from around 30 yuan/kg to over 60 yuan/kg.

But in Xiao Chen's view, the increase in raw material costs is only one of the factors contributing to the rise in coffee prices. The more crucial reason is that commercial coffee no longer wants to continue doing "loss making business" and must start pursuing profits.

The previous 9.9 yuan may not have made any profit, the second may have been reverse payment, and the third may have relied on other businesses to increase profits. "Xiao Chen believes that, including the costs of operations and other expenses, 9.9 yuan is close to the cost price of a cup of coffee.

Xiao Chen further mentioned that the cost of chain coffee will also be passed on to franchisees or joint venture partners, but in fact, they all want to make money.

In this situation, price increase has become an inevitable choice.

On this point, coffee practitioner Eric holds the same view. He believes that selling a cup of coffee like Lucky Coffee for five or six yuan is a loss

Price increase is the current situation in the coffee industry, and it is also a choice for the industry to develop to a certain stage.

The general manager of Piye Coffee Retail stated in a media interview at FBIF2026, "For many players and brands in this industry, the transition from relatively low-quality price competition to high-quality value competition will gradually occur. I believe this transition will happen quickly

The boundary between commercial coffee and specialty coffee is becoming blurred

Behind the continuous price increases of coffee players, an undeniable fact is that commercial coffee has the confidence to raise prices.

At the FBIF 2026 site, more than one coffee industry insider told Bohu Finance that coffee itself does not have obvious barriers. A brand has it, and B brand can also buy it.

In this situation, the boundary between commercial coffee and specialty coffee is also becoming blurred.

Xiao Chen believes that there is not much difference in the raw materials used between commercial coffee and specialty coffee, the only difference being in emotional value. The overall atmosphere and experience of boutique coffee shops will be better.

But at the same time, specialty coffee has been hit less by the price war than expected.

The General Manager of Piye Coffee Retail believes that under the price war, the value of coffee has been severely weakened and diluted for consumers. But as a brand, I am happy to see such a change, as the market quickly cultivates some consumers' demand for coffee through low-priced and high-quality products.

The above-mentioned person mentioned, "I think the entire coffee market is getting bigger and better. Although everyone says it's very competitive and there are many price wars, there are still many players willing to participate, which to some extent reflects that this industry is thriving

More and more consumers are becoming aware of the coffee category, and the customer base for premium coffee is further increasing.

During the on-site interview at FBIF 2026, Bohu Finance also learned about some new consumer voices and trends.

After the price increase of commercial coffee, most of them are priced at over ten yuan per cup. This pricing is driving some consumers to turn to premium coffee.

Whether it's Xiao Meng as a consumer or Xiao Chen as a supply chain practitioner, they all told Bohu Finance that instead of buying a regular coffee for over ten yuan, it's better to spend a little more money to buy a premium coffee with a better experience.

Xiao Chen believes that after consumers have a certain understanding of coffee, they will want to drink better coffee instead of pursuing cheaper coffee.

And this is also the key reason why Piye Coffee always pursues "small and beautiful" - hoping to maintain the emotional value of coffee for consumers.

In conclusion

It can be seen that the coffee industry, which has undergone parity, is ushering in new developments beyond parity.

Rather than saying that the boundary between commercial coffee and specialty coffee is blurring, it is more accurate to say that the entire coffee industry is accelerating its reshaping. Luckin Coffee is no longer the Luckin Coffee of the past. Lucky Coffee doesn't want to continue being a "Honey Snow Ice City", and Piye Coffee doesn't claim to be a boutique coffee.

The possibilities of the coffee track are still full of imagination.

This article originates from: Bohu Finance

Author: Lynn