跨界咖啡，低价闪击县城Cross border coffee, low-priced flash hits the county town

蓝鲸新闻  文|斑马消费 陈碧婷

咖啡市场的战争，正在低线市场，以不同的阵型展开。

今年上半年，跨界玩家批量涌入三四线咖啡市场，各大新茶饮品牌依托万店集中上新咖啡，供给增速大幅跑赢需求，下沉市场迅速从增量蓝海转为竞争红海。

一场集中在县城、乡镇的咖啡价格战或已无可避免。

跨界大军集体下沉

当新茶饮市场逐步进入存量竞争，各头部品牌不约而同地将增长锁定在咖啡，且全部将咖啡业务扩张的重心放在了低线城市。

在此之前，蜜雪冰城已依靠成熟供应链完成双线布局，探索出了一条快速切入咖啡市场的成熟路径。

旗下幸运咖，于2020年4月从河南市场为起点，正式开放加盟，到2025年11月，门店规模突破万家。

2026年3月，“雪王”继续加码咖啡赛道，蜜雪冰城数万家门店同步配置现磨咖啡机，在低价咖啡市场已取得绝对领先。

古茗同样看重下沉的增量，品牌已将咖啡定位于第二增长曲线。2025年底，旗下万余门店完成咖啡机装配。今年5月，公司已明确全年安排4亿元营销预算，重点倾斜咖啡，配套设备补贴、产品研发与县域营销投入。

甜啦啦在咖啡市场的扩张节奏更具代表性。2026年2月，品牌在总部所在的安徽，选择首批50家门店试点咖啡。其后，公司通过加盟商补贴政策，将市场价格数万元的智能咖啡机补贴至万元以内，同时给予原料补贴与货补支持，以提升门店的积极性。到4月，试点门店已破千家。

与此同时，茶百道、沪上阿姨等新茶饮品牌，也在全国门店同步上线咖啡品类，并用鲜果融合咖啡等差异化产品，迎合低线城市消费者长期饮用奶茶的口味习惯。

新茶饮集体加码咖啡，重注低线市场，品类拓展没有新店租金、装修等大额新增支出，仅需配置咖啡机就能上线咖啡品类。产品定价集中在5至9元，精准击中下沉价格敏感人群。

这些品牌，通过茶饮品类已在市场形成了较强的品牌认知，门店上线咖啡立马就能稳定产生基础订单。用茶饮带咖啡、咖啡拉动茶饮，形成品类互补。

仅存的大规模增量市场

新茶饮扎堆布局县域咖啡并非盲目跟风，而是赛道见顶、消费培育、供应链完善共同催生的结果。

目前，一二线现磨咖啡已近饱和，增长空间持续收窄。美团2024年3月发布的《2024县城咖啡新业态报告》显示，截至2024年1月，县城咖啡商户数量，较2022年同期上涨113.36%，县域订单增速明显高于一二线。

多家券商消费研报测算，三线及以下咖啡市场年均增速稳定在25%以上，县域已是仅存的大规模增量市场。

传统茶饮赛道内卷加剧，门店扩张、单店营收增长见顶，行业收缩压力传导至下沉市场，倒逼各品牌拓展品类寻求增长。

新茶饮门店的客流高峰集中在午晚两个时段，早高峰长期闲置，咖啡可以填补空白时段，拉高单日整体营收。据机构统计，多数新茶饮改造门店日均咖啡销量为60至90杯，已经形成了较为稳定的增量。

上游产业链成熟，是平价现磨咖啡规模化落地的产业基础。国产全自动商用咖啡机量产，采购价较三年前已大幅下降；国内咖啡豆烘焙产能扩张，国产咖啡替代进口，原料采购成本趋于稳定，即便单杯咖啡价格降至10元以内，仍有基础毛利空间。

中国咖啡市场经过多年培育，返乡青年逐渐将现磨咖啡的认知带回县城，低线市场的咖啡消费习惯已经完成初步培育。美团外卖订单统计，今年春节返乡周期县城咖啡订单同比涨幅超136%。虽然，平日客流有所回落，但学生、年轻上班族构成稳定消费底盘，日常咖啡消费需求的基础仍在。

价格战硝烟再起

跨界品牌集体到县城卖咖啡，短期内供给速度远超需求增速，无疑会导致又一场咖啡内卷的形成。

今年1月，库迪叫停维持三年的9.9元不限量活动；瑞幸同步缩减9.9元活动覆盖范围。两大咖啡巨头集体告别九块九，被行业视作咖啡价格战松动的信号。

如今，战场转移到了低线市场。

目前，古茗正用7.9元的美式、9.9元的奶咖为品牌引流；沪上阿姨、茶百道都将美式的促销价格打到了4.9元。甜啦啦更是推出了2.9元起的限时福利活动，发力现磨咖啡赛道的野心不言而喻。

按行业通用物料测算，一杯平价现磨咖啡，原料成本接近6元（头部品牌可能更低），房租、人工、水电等还需要额外支出。跨界品牌持续低价分流客群，让传统连锁咖啡品牌陷入两难：继续补贴，会承担盈利压力；取消低价活动，面临增长压力。

县城核心商圈高度集中，一条商业街几百米范围内，瑞幸、库迪、幸运咖、古茗、甜啦啦等多个品牌贴身肉搏的情况随处可见。不管品牌们愿不愿意，一场针对下沉市场的咖啡价格战都已不可避免。

这对于扎根低线市场的中小咖啡品牌来说，无疑是一个毁灭性的打击。

NCBD餐宝典统计的2024至2025年行业数据显示，国内咖啡品类全渠道平均闭店率10.3%，三四线中小咖啡门店关停、转让率，显著高于高线城市头部连锁品牌。窄门餐眼周期数据显示，2023年9月至2024年9月全年咖啡商户闭店总量超4.3万家，行业仍保持两万余家门店净增长，但闭店点位中三四线县域商圈占比更高。

针对下沉平价赛道，行业加盟商成本测算模型显示，在品牌竞争激烈的县域点位，咖啡门店回本周期，从此前行业普遍的12至18个月拉长至2至4年，下沉市场加盟商投资回报压力明显加大。

新茶饮跨界入局，拓宽了县域咖啡消费人群，将加速现磨咖啡在低线市场的普及。但2026上半年集中爆发的低价扩张潮，也让供需失衡、价格内卷、门店盈利承压等行业阵痛集中显现。

低价混战将重塑县域咖啡原有竞争格局，市场洗牌持续上演，竞争的终点仍将是综合实力的比拼。

Blue Whale News Article | Zebra Consumption by Chen Biting

The war in the coffee market is unfolding in different formations in the lower tier market.

In the first half of this year, cross-border players flooded into the third - and fourth tier coffee markets in large quantities. Major new tea beverage brands relied on Wandian to concentrate on new coffee, and the supply growth rate significantly outperformed demand. The sinking market quickly shifted from an incremental blue ocean to a competitive red ocean.

A coffee price war concentrated in county towns and villages is inevitable.

Cross border armies collectively sink

As the new tea beverage market gradually enters stock competition, various top brands have coincidentally locked their growth in coffee, and all have focused on expanding their coffee business in lower tier cities.

Prior to this, Meixue Ice City had already completed a dual line layout relying on a mature supply chain, exploring a mature path to quickly enter the coffee market.

Its subsidiary Lucky Coffee officially opened for franchise starting from the Henan market in April 2020, and by November 2025, its store scale has exceeded 10000.

In March 2026, "Snow King" continued to increase its coffee market, with tens of thousands of stores in Meixue Ice City simultaneously equipped with freshly ground coffee machines, achieving an absolute lead in the low-priced coffee market.

Guming also values the incremental growth of sinking, and the brand has positioned coffee on the second growth curve. By the end of 2025, over 10000 of its stores will have completed the assembly of coffee machines. In May of this year, the company has set a marketing budget of 400 million yuan for the whole year, with a focus on coffee, supporting equipment subsidies, product research and development, and county-level marketing investment.

The expansion pace of Tianlala in the coffee market is more representative. In February 2026, the brand selected the first batch of 50 stores in Anhui, where its headquarters is located, to pilot coffee. Subsequently, the company implemented a subsidy policy for franchisees, reducing the market price of smart coffee machines from tens of thousands of yuan to within 10000 yuan. At the same time, the company provided subsidies for raw materials and goods to enhance the enthusiasm of its stores. By April, the number of pilot stores had exceeded a thousand.

At the same time, new tea beverage brands such as Chabadao and Hushang Auntie have also launched coffee categories in stores across the country, and blended fresh fruits with differentiated products such as coffee to cater to the long-term taste habits of consumers in lower tier cities who drink milk tea.

New tea drinks are collectively increasing their investment in coffee, focusing on the low-end market. There are no large new expenses such as new store rent or decoration for category expansion, and only the installation of coffee machines is needed to launch the coffee category. The product pricing is concentrated between 5 and 9 yuan, accurately targeting the price sensitive population in the lower tier.

These brands have formed a strong brand awareness in the market through the tea beverage category, and the launch of coffee in stores can immediately generate stable basic orders. Using tea drinks to bring coffee and coffee to pull tea drinks, forming complementary categories.

The only remaining large-scale incremental market

The clustering of new tea drinks and the layout of county-level coffee is not blindly following the trend, but the result of the peak of the competition, cultivation of consumption, and improvement of the supply chain.

At present, the first and second tier freshly ground coffee is close to saturation, and the growth space continues to narrow. The "2024 County Coffee New Business Report" released by Meituan in March 2024 shows that as of January 2024, the number of coffee merchants in the county has increased by 113.36% compared to the same period in 2022, and the growth rate of county orders is significantly higher than that of first and second tier cities.

According to consumption research reports from multiple securities firms, the average annual growth rate of the third tier and below coffee market has remained stable at over 25%, and counties are the only remaining large-scale incremental markets.

The competition in the traditional tea beverage industry is intensifying, with store expansion and single store revenue growth peaking. The pressure of industry contraction is transmitted to the sinking market, forcing brands to expand their product categories and seek growth.

The peak customer flow of new tea beverage stores is concentrated in the afternoon and evening periods, while the morning peak is idle for a long time. Coffee can fill the gap and increase the overall daily revenue. According to institutional statistics, the average daily coffee sales of most newly renovated tea beverage stores are 60 to 90 cups, which has formed a relatively stable increase.

The mature upstream industrial chain is the industrial foundation for the large-scale implementation of affordable freshly ground coffee. Domestic fully automatic commercial coffee machines have been mass-produced, and the purchase price has significantly decreased compared to three years ago; The expansion of domestic coffee bean roasting capacity, the substitution of imported coffee with domestic coffee, and the stabilization of raw material procurement costs, even if the price of a single cup of coffee drops to less than 10 yuan, there is still room for basic gross profit.

After years of cultivation, the Chinese coffee market has gradually brought the awareness of freshly ground coffee back to the county town among young people returning home, and the coffee consumption habits in the low-end market have been preliminarily cultivated. According to Meituan's food delivery order statistics, the year-on-year increase in coffee orders in county towns during this year's Spring Festival return period exceeded 136%. Although the daily passenger flow has declined, students and young office workers form a stable consumption base, and the foundation of daily coffee consumption demand still exists.

Price war, smoke of gunpowder resurrects

Cross border brands collectively selling coffee in county towns, with supply rates far exceeding demand growth in the short term, will undoubtedly lead to the formation of another coffee internal competition.

In January of this year, Kudi suspended the 9.9 yuan unlimited promotion that had been maintained for three years; Luckin Coffee synchronously reduces the coverage of 9.9 yuan activities. The two major coffee giants collectively bid farewell to the 9.9 yuan, which is seen by the industry as a signal of the loosening of the coffee price war.

Now, the battlefield has shifted to the low-end market.

At present, Guming is using 7.9 yuan American style coffee and 9.9 yuan milk coffee to attract brand traffic; Shanghai Auntie and Tea Baidao have both raised their American style promotional prices to 4.9 yuan. Sweet Lala has launched a limited time welfare activity starting from 2.9 yuan, and its ambition to focus on the freshly ground coffee track is self-evident.

According to industry standard materials, a cup of affordable freshly ground coffee costs nearly 6 yuan in raw materials (top brands may have lower costs), with additional expenses for rent, labor, utilities, and more. Cross border brands continue to divert customers at low prices, putting traditional chain coffee brands in a dilemma: continuing to subsidize will bear profit pressure; Cancel low-priced activities and face growth pressure.

The core business district of the county is highly concentrated, and within a few hundred meters of a commercial street, multiple brands such as Luckin Coffee, Kudi, Lucky Coffee, Guming, and Tianlala engage in close combat. Whether brands are willing or not, a coffee price war targeting the lower tier market is inevitable.

This is undoubtedly a devastating blow to small and medium-sized coffee brands rooted in the low-end market.

According to industry data from NCBD's Food Code from 2024 to 2025, the average closure rate of coffee stores across all channels in China is 10.3%. The closure and transfer rate of small and medium-sized coffee stores in third - and fourth tier cities is significantly higher than that of top chain brands in high tier cities. According to the data of the Narrow Gate Dining Eye Cycle, the total number of closed coffee shops from September 2023 to September 2024 exceeded 43000, and the industry still maintained a net growth of more than 20000 stores. However, the proportion of closed shops in third - and fourth tier county-level commercial districts is higher.

In response to the sinking parity track, the cost calculation model for industry franchisees shows that in counties with fierce brand competition, the payback period for coffee shops has been extended from the previous industry wide 12 to 18 months to 2 to 4 years, and the investment return pressure on franchisees in sinking markets has significantly increased.

The cross-border entry of new tea drinks has expanded the consumer base of coffee in the county, which will accelerate the popularization of freshly ground coffee in the low-end market. But the concentrated outbreak of low-priced expansion in the first half of 2026 has also highlighted industry pains such as supply-demand imbalance, price internalization, and pressure on store profits.

The low price chaos will reshape the original competitive landscape of county-level coffee, and market reshuffling will continue. The end point of competition will still be the competition of comprehensive strength.